Posts Tagged ‘Severe’

Tornado Watch #1 has been issued this evening across portions of Missouri and Illinois for a strong cold front that has sparked some severe/tornado warned storms across the region this evening.  It looks like no confirmed reports of tornadoes are out at this time, but several reports of hail greater than .75” in diameter have been.  The tornado watch runs for the next several hours until 7AM central time.

On another note….a SLGT risk of severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center around midnight for today across portions of Central Mississippi into Central/Northern Alabama.  The primary threats remain to be wind/hail but an isolated tornado occurrence is possible as well.  We will have to watch this potential through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow and we may have teams in the field if conditions warrant. 

There is the potential for touring to take place as well.  Inquire about tours to brett@livestormsnow.com ASAP to make reservations! 

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the deep south on Monday and Tuesday for the potential for a significant severe weather threat including hail, high winds, and the potential for some strong tornadoes.  This looks to be the greatest severe threat of the year as we move onward into spring with April marching right in and on cue.  There have been some timing differences, but currently the greatest threat and time for severe weather looks to come between 6pm Monday and 6am on Tuesday.  This has the potential to be a dangerous event.  We will continue to monitor and update later on as conditions warrant. 

Nasty storm around Fulton, AL: loaded with lightning and some hail it looks like.  This cell is moving off to the east at a good clip. 

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX AND NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES…

AT 955 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
WEST OF THOMASVILLE TO JACKSON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
  GLOVER…BASHI…UNION AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 1000 PM CST…
  ASBURY…WHATELY…WHATLEY AND THOMASVILLE AROUND 1005 PM CST…
  FINLEY CROSSING AND ATKEISON AROUND 1010 PM CST…

Looks like we will get started fairly fast this weekend with showers and storms already taking place across a good portion of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening.  Tomorrow….some localized areas of flooding are possible ahead of the cold frontal boundary as pockets of heavy rainfall setup during the day.  Some isolated severe weather will be possible in areas where instability values can creep up, but a good chunk of Alabama will deal with easterly winds of the wedge boundary which will keep temperatures cooler east of I-65 and instability in check.  The best chance of any severe storms will be to the west and south over portions of coastal Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama where some marine air could spark some severe weather. 

Model output does indicate some areas receiving over 3” of rainfall north of I-20/59 during the overnight tonight and day tomorrow.  With the drought stricken conditions across a good portion of the area, flooding will not be a widespread problem unless some 5”+ totals are reached in a 12 hour period.  This does not look likely, but we will definitely watch the trends and training of cells within the rain shield.

We are beginning to worry a little more about Wednesday as a very dynamic system will take shape to our west and put is back in the warm sector yet again as a cold front heads our way.   There are questions regarding the timing and moisture quality that returns ahead of the system.   If things continue to trend toward more return flow….we will likely be dealing with a tornadic type event.  Stay tuned as we will be updating the chase status during the next couple of days to reflect on this.  Enjoy your wet start to the weekend with a movie and some relaxation like I am.

Our current high resolution radar shows some lighter showers spreading into the area this hour with the bulk of the rainfall staying south of I-20 where it has remained most of the day.  It looks like some showery activity can be expected for the rest of the night across most of the area with the heaviest rainfall staying to the south.  This will begin to taper off during the day on Monday and give way to mostly cloudy skies.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued there latest day 2 convective outlook for Tuesday.  The threat has expanded some to the west and they mention higher instability values potentially being present as temperatures are a big warmer on current model runs for the Mississippi area.  There is now mention of rotating storms with a highly sheared low level environment and the potential for a couple of super cell thunderstorms across LA/MS during this time.  We are going to upgrade our chase status to MODERATE for the likelihood of chasing across the Jackson metro area on Tuesday.  Continue to monitor the blog concerning this as things may change before Tuesday.

Now….we won’t talk much about it but the models are starting to pick up on something pretty big for the weekend.  This is the Canadian model that has performed pretty good in the longer range this winter….and it shows some Winter mischief across Mississippi and Alabama in the form of ice and snow on Saturday.  We will fine tune things before then, but the idea is definitely on the table.

The next cold front is going to be coming into the middle of the country by Monday as a powerful upper air system gets going to the west.  A wedge frontal boundary is going to play havoc over portions of east Alabama as a high pressure system in the north east intensifies pushing drier air in from the northeast…..as a low pressure system begins to wrap up in the central plains.  This will be a true clash of the air masses. 

In the end, the moist air will begin to win the battle as the cold front approaches later Monday night into Tuesday and heavy rain and some strong storms will be possible.  I’m not sold on severe weather at this time due to limited instability.  However, if we can get at least marginally unstable….the wind dynamics will provide plenty of shear for severe storms to form *if* unstable air can make it into the area.

Continue to monitor us for further details on the potential for some severe weather as we approach the Monday night/Tuesday time frame.

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