Brett Adair and the Alabama Storm Trackers may be going on a chase in Arkansas on Tuesday. Contact Brett Adair for more information if interested at brett@livestormsnow.com.

Well….it looks like we are getting toward that time of the year folks where severe storms of the convective and winter variety will roam the US.  This weekend is no different.  Global models are indicating a strong trough ejecting out of the Rockies and moving across the central/northern plain states while beginning to take a negative tilt.  As of late, GFS trends indicate that instability values on the warm side of this system will be rather low due to limited moisture except along the far southern end of the front in parts of Texas.  It looks like some isolated severe storms could be possible mainly with wind being the problem in the form of downbursts along the front since the higher wind shear values will remain well north of the region.  Even though limited instability is present…we could see a cold core setup for some funnel/weak tornado formation further north across NE KS/MO/SE NE where the colder upper level setup will be in place along wiith high wind shear values.  Instability could be maximized in this region given the cold temps aloft so this is a situation we will need to closely monitor.  Elsewhere along the frontal boundary…a line of low topped showers/convection will be likely along the boundary itself.  Don’t expect a ton of severe weather unless instability values increase.  However, as we all know it doesn’t take much this time of the year so we will watch it.

Further north….in the cold sector of the storm a pretty hefty winter event will be in store for portions of the Dakotas, northern Nebraska, and Minnesota. Snowfall amounts in excess of 4″ will be likely just NW of the surface low track that is expected to move from the KC metro toward portions of SE Minnesota. There will be significant snows in portions of the region, but we will conintue to monitor the situation before putting out some kind of map on this.  

There is some potential that we could have chasers in the field if this ends up being more severe than we expect.  Check back for frequent updates as we monitor the situation.

The coolest weather of the fall season is likely coming over the next week.  A major east coast storm is forecast to develop and bring down much cooler temperatures with it by the 20th of October.  Some rain and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front for our area, but severe weather doesn’t look to be a major issue this time.  Cool air will likely be the main story line.

   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
   STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH TIME.  EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.
  
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION SLOWLY
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA…BOTH INVOF A SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARY NEAR THE SERN TX/SRN LA COAST AND ALSO FARTHER N INTO SRN
   MS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT.  THE CONVECTION IS INITIATING
   WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   THROUGH A DEEP LAYER…AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   NOW AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA.
  
   AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES…AND AS A COMPACT UPPER
   LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
   REGION…LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA…SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
   WHILE PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MORNING RAOBS REVEAL MODEST FLOW ALOFT
   — AND THUS SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS…DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
   THIS LIMITATION AND YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE WW IS NOT
   IMMINENT…INCREASING POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WATCH
   ISSUANCE.
  
   ..GOSS.. 09/28/2011
  
  
   ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…HGX…

Don’t worry about any falling sattelite hitting you, Alabama. NASA says the odds are one in 21 trillion! However, if you do beat the odds, NASA urges you not to touch it. Here is the current UARS sattelite location.

Tropical Storm Maria has formed in the Atlantic. Maria looks like she could impact the continental US. Stay connected to AlabamaStormTrackers.com and LiveStormsNow.com for the latest on Tropical Storm Maria and all tropical activity in the Atlantic basin.

The HPC now puts some rather hefty rainfall totals across portions of Alabama into the weekend and next week.  Currently….the NHC continues to hold at Tropical Depression status.  There continues to be a high likelihood that Lee will be born sometime in the next 12 hours.  We will update more as information becomes available…

Stay connected to Alabamastormtrackers.com and Livestormsnow.com for the latest on Irene, and contact Brett Adair at brett@livestormsnow.com for information on a tropical tour.