Archive for the ‘Watches’ Category
Winter Storm Update: Warnings Coming and Snow Totals Call
February 11th, 2010 | 
Author: 
Now….Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for the same areas, but we have been told to expect warnings to go out later today as the storm nears along with some Winter Weather Advisories north of the warning for the expectation of 1-2″ snowfall totals. We have finally thrown together a map this morning of what we are thinking…and keep in mind this is subject to change but given a little northward shift in things….I believe the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor have the potential to be higher than anyone else is forecasting at this point.
The HPC is maintaining it’s probabilities for 4″+ snow accumulation south of the I-20 corridor as well and I believe they are pretty much in line with my thinking. Here is the new HPC 10% snow probabilities map.
Keep in mind…we are still some 12-24 hours away from this snow event and things are subject to change rapidly. What we do know…is that it looks like everyone will be getting some snowfall out of this system. It is harder to pinpoint exact accumulations with these kind of systems given our active southern subtropical jet. As we have said in previous discussions….if the northern and southern stream phase more than forecast…we could be in for a more massive winter storm.
Stay tuned for later updates…
Winter Storm Watch: Central/South Alabama
I believe there is the potential for someone south of US-82 to pickup a whopper of a snow event…..maybe on the order of 6-8″+ totals. So…..Selma…Camden….Montgomery….Troy…Greenville….this may be your huge snow hit that you haven’t seen in years. Here are some percentages overlayed on our in house radar system…
Blue – 10% Risk of 4+” Green- 40% Risk of 4″+
Blue – 10% Risk of 8″+ Snowfall Accumulation
Winter Weather Advisory….Coastal Mississippi and Louisiana
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Posted in Chase Potential, Cold, Damage Reports, Flooding, Forecast, General, Hail/wind, Hurricane, Lightning, Local Storm Reports, Outlooks, Photos, Radar, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, Tropical Storm, Uncategorized, Video, Warnings, Watches, Waterspouts, Winter Weather | 
Tags: Alabama, Severe, Software, Tornado, Warnings, Wind | 
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Tornado Watch Extended
TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 786
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009
TORNADO WATCH 786 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS
ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUTAUGA BIBB BLOUNT
BUTLER CALHOUN CHILTON
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
CONECUH COOSA DALLAS
ELMORE ETOWAH FAYETTE
GREENE HALE JEFFERSON
LAMAR LOWNDES MARENGO
MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY
PERRY PICKENS SHELBY
ST. CLAIR SUMTER TALLADEGA
TUSCALOOSA WALKER WASHINGTON
WILCOX WINSTON
Tornado Watch West Alabama
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 785
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM CDT FRI OCT 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
700 PM CDT.
TORNADOES…HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER…THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH…AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
MUSCLE SHOALS ALABAMA TO 35 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PINE BELT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER…A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION…EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS HEATING OF
THE DAY AIDS IN BOOSTING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND STRONG COLD
FRONT PROGRESSES GRADUALLY EAST INTO VERY MOIST AIR MASS. RADAR IS
ALREADY INDICATING WEAK ROTATION WITH MANY OF THE MORE PERSISTENT
CELLS THAT HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THE MORNING. BOTH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT FAST-MOVING
CELLS COULD PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AS
GREATER INSTABILITY IS REALIZED.
First Freeze Watch of the Winter!
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
634 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009
…NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT…
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HAMILTON…SULLIGENT…VERNON…
FAYETTE…DOUBLE SPRINGS…JASPER…ONEONTA…GADSDEN…
ANNISTON…CENTRE…HEFLIN…CARROLLTON…TUSCALOOSA…
BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…COLUMBIANA…PELHAM…ALABASTER…
PELL CITY…MOODY…TALLADEGA…SYLACAUGA…ASHLAND…ROANOKE
634 PM CDT SAT OCT 17 2009
…FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING…
A FREEZE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER 30S SUNDAY NIGHT GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CARROLLTON TO ALABASTER TO ROANOKE.
NEAR FREEZING OR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER 3
AM AND LAST BETWEEN ONE AND FOUR HOURS.
A FREEZE WATCH MEANS SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE.
THESE CONDITIONS COULD KILL CROPS AND OTHER SENSITIVE VEGETATION.
10/12/09: Flooding
Flash flood warnings have been required this morning for Dekalb, Jefferson, and Etowah counties until late morning/early afternoon as some 3″ totals have occurred over portions of these areas. Heavy rain extends from Millport to Fort Payne. Rainfall is more scattered south of this line currently with some heavier echos across Central Alabama. More heavy rainfall is developing across Mississippi and Louisiana and will generally move in our direction later this afternoon. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has raised rainfall amounts expected over the next five days yet again.
Along with the threat of heavy rainfall across the area, some strong thunderstorm activity will be possible around and south from a Demopolis to Montgomery line where a warm frontal boundary resides. This boundary won’t have much push to move northward given the heavy rain shield to the north which will aid in “blocking” a northward motion of the boundary. Some high winds and an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out as thunderstorms develop later this afternoon to the south of the front.
We will monitor the threat for severe weather and flooding throughout the afternoon and we will make a decision over the next few hours on chasing or going to shoot video of the storms and flooding. Stay tuned for later updates.