Archive for the ‘Watches’ Category

A few days before Christmas we were pegging on a potential Christmas winter storm that could plague parts of the southland with there first white Christmas ever.  This all turned to fruition during the early morning hours of the 25th and gave most of us what we had all been waiting for.  To the setup…

The night before the short range models started coming in more aggressive with precipitation.  These models started showing accumulations throughout the southeast region including north and central Alabama.  Here is a model image of the 00z BAMS model that is derived from Baron Services in Huntsville, Alabama.  Baron Services provides broadcast media with in house computer graphics for radar and weather modeling.

This model began showing the 2” criteria snowfall that is border line for a winter storm warning in this part of the country.  So, now that things began locking in on a greater snowfall potential we were watching this system develop from our homes.

The morning of Christmas Eve, December 24th, our system was developing in western Texas and to the north across the Dakotas.  We watched from our in-house system as the upper air system strengthened and moved across Texas as snowfall continued to move southward from Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Kentucky.

The surface low began to crank in far south Texas and precipitation was much more expansive that forecast by the short term models over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  This led many forecasters to believe that even with a more aggressive approach that the models may be coming in a bit too weak with the system.  The European, the most aggressive model of them all, was beginning to look like a good solution to place your bets on.  By the late evening hours and early morning hours on Christmas…..winter weather advisories/warnings began to fly.

It is nearly unheard of to have winter weather advisories down to Dothan, Alabama any time of the year much less Christmas.  However, this was a good call as snowfall began transitioning southward the morning of the 25th as our surface low transitioned along the coast with new upper level energy moving in to bring the colder air aloft with it.  Local radars began showing the transition zone as a “bright banding” feature.

Above is the transition zone around 10 am across portions of Jefferson, Shelby, and Talladega County Alabama on the leading edge of the precipitation.  This bright banding was due to some evaporation of the heavy precip. aloft.  It was reaching the surface in the form of sleet and snow as the column above cooled to isothermal.  In other words…..the heavy precipitation brought the colder air down with it to the surface allowing the mixture or changeover to all snow.  Basically….here was the end result for most areas.

Snowfall totals varied across many locations with Central Alabama receiving 1-2” in most cases with heavier totals of 4”+ in the Huntsville area.  Portions of Jackson County took 6” with power flickers being reported before the snow ended.  Black ice also became a problem when all was said and done as the cold air and windy conditions settled in.  Another winter weather advisory was required on 12/26 due to a large upper level low dropping in and bringing in colder air aloft allowing the low to wring out all over the moisture available in the atmosphere.

As the low moved northeast…..the BAMS models was pinpointing a potential major blizzard for the northeast.  Parts of NJ, NY, MA, etc. expected to get 2’ of snow!  Here is the BAMS model assessment of the situation from 00z 12/26.

Now…..here are the results from Vimeo user Michael Black of New Jersey.  These are images shot from a DSLR in a 5 minutes sequence during the blizzard.  Amazing 20” snowfall for these folks.

This is likely something that many of us in the south may never see again in our lifetime.  This is the first recorded white Christmas for parts of the Birmingham CWA since records have been kept.

Alot of issues are ongoing and have already occurred with icing across the area from Troy on to the north.  The Freezing Rain Advisory has been allowed to expire west of I-65, but it’s still in effect until 3PM east of 65.  A total of 3 deaths have been reported thus far with many serious injuries.  Parts of I-59 have been closed as well.  Here is a look at surface temperatures and what to expect for the rest of the afternoon.

Icing potential should end for all areas including the far northeast counties by 5PM.  Warmer air is moving in from the SW and Jackson, MS is hovering near 60°!!  We should warm up even into the overnight hours and reach a temp near 60° tomorrow in Central Alabama.

Here is some video of the sleet/freezing rain from Childersburg.  YouTube didn’t convert very well, but you can see the traffic continuing with the icing ongoing as well as the ice bouncing off of vehicles and accumulating on stepping stones. 

Stay safe during the rest of your Wednesday afternoon.  Conditions will improve this evening.

Storms are really going now and tornado watches are up to the Alabama state line from US-82 southward in Mississippi.  Several warnings just came out for the Jackson, MS warning area and these storms are increasing and intensifying.  This is expected to continue eastward late into the night and tomorrow across portions of our area.  One confirmed tornado in Central Louisiana has destroyed well built brick homes near the Atlanta community.  This is a serious situation. 

We will be deploying as things get rocky in our vicinity later tonight or tomorrow morning.  You can monitor our live streaming video at the top of the page or on WBRC-TV FOX 6 once severe weather coverage picks up.  I’ll be with meteorologist James-Paul Dice and Wes Wyatt once continuous coverage begins.  More later…

This afternoon an isolated thunderstorm or shower formed ahead of the cold front moving through the Jackson, MS forecast area and developed some pretty tight rotation.  This cell has apparently done some damage in parts of Simpson County due to a possible tornado.  Here is a glimpse of the cell as it moved off to the east with the damage markers indicated.  It did look rather stout after passing through.

This evening Tropical Storm Earl continues to get better organized east of the British and US Virgin Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph once again.  The system has had a hard time becoming well organized due to its very fast motion over the last couple of days. 

The microwave imagery once again this evening shows that Earl is not very symmertrical in terms of a well defined inner core.  Over the next day or so he is expected to slow down a bit and be less influenced by Danielle’s outflow….therefore we expect him to become a major hurricane over the next 2 days.  Track is still very tricky at this point, but anyone along the east coast of Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close watch on the track and intensity forecasts of Earl.

Alex looks to be strengthening this morning as visible satellite imagery shows deepening thunderstorm tops around the center of circulation.  A pressure drop to 959mb was indicated by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft just before the 7am advisory this morning.  Alex currently has maximum sustained winds of 80mph and is moving NW @ 7mph as of the latest 10am CDT advisory.  This storm still has several hours over water and will affect portions of southern Texas even if the center makes landfall south of the border.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay, TX south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  We expect Alex to strengthen to a category two hurricane later today.  Alex still has the potential to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall sometime late tonight or early tomorrow.

This morning…..Winter Storm Warnings are on the map from I-20 northward and east of I-65. This system is a clipper that is developing into an upper level low that will bring tremendous dynamics southward and set the stage for some very heavy snowfall later tonight as Gulf moisture streams into the system. Here is your winter storm warning and winter weather advisory areas…

Snowfall will be very heavy as a change over occurs this evening.  This snow will accumulate rapidly and snowfall rates could be 2-3″ per hour…which is MUCH heavier than the snow we experienced on Friday.  Also, we are expecting some thunderstorm induced snowfall or thundersnow.  This could really make totals add up across areas that start getting the thunder.  Now, the administration here has put together a snowfall totals map and Fred Gossage created the graphic.

We will post more details as we go throughout the day on this developing winter storm situation.