A tornado watch is now in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Texas until 8pm Central time this evening.  Looks as if the main threats from these storms will be wind and hail, but an isolated tornado will be possible as low level shear increases this afternoon into the evening hours.  We will continue to monitor the threats and will update you if any of our teams end up hitting the field in this region.

Tornado Watch #1 has been issued this evening across portions of Missouri and Illinois for a strong cold front that has sparked some severe/tornado warned storms across the region this evening.  It looks like no confirmed reports of tornadoes are out at this time, but several reports of hail greater than .75” in diameter have been.  The tornado watch runs for the next several hours until 7AM central time.

On another note….a SLGT risk of severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center around midnight for today across portions of Central Mississippi into Central/Northern Alabama.  The primary threats remain to be wind/hail but an isolated tornado occurrence is possible as well.  We will have to watch this potential through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow and we may have teams in the field if conditions warrant. 

There is the potential for touring to take place as well.  Inquire about tours to brett@livestormsnow.com ASAP to make reservations! 

Most of the active storms this afternoon are over East Mississippi and far west/south Alabama where a Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until later this evening.  Several reports of wind and hail have already been received.  No major damage, but another day of the pulse severe storms in the south.  More storms are forming over portions of eastern Tuscaloosa, central Winston, and northern Cullman counties with some heavy rain and lightning involved.  Any storms will have deadly lightning potential yet again this afternoon.  Most storms will sag SSE at around 15-20 mph.  Some additional development is possible.

Heavy rains are beginning to spread northeastward across portions of Central Alabama with the heaviest over southwestern sections of our viewing area in the Sumter, Greene, Perry, Hale, Pickens, and Dallas County areas.  Some areas of localized flooding have already been reported with the rainfall during the afternoon with earlier storms due to swollen creeks and streams from the last widespread rain event a few days ago.

Rain is expected to spread and intensify across the entire area with some of the rainfall being convective in nature.  Most of the region will see a good 2”+ rainfall event from this with more coming tomorrow.  Flash flood watches are already in effect and warnings are quite possible if this event becomes prolonged.  Rainfall will be moderate to heavy for most areas during the night tonight.

There could be a break in the action ahead of the cold front tomorrow before more showers and storms impact the area.  This will be key in terms of how much instability develops across the area and we will be monitoring this frontal progression throughout the night time hours.  CAPE values are climbing to our south in a hurry just south of the front…..on the order of 2000 joules of MLCAPE.  If these kind of values end up progressive into Alabama….we will have a definite severe storm and tornado threat.  We will keep you updated…

Portions of SW Alabama have been placed under a tornado watch until 3AM CST.  This watch only includes far western border counties this evening.  Thunderstorms are erupting along the front and ahead of it from the Shreveport, LA area eastward.  This is expected to continue overnight and the threat of tornadic action is expected to increase with time. 

A very heavy rain mass is moving across portions of Mississippi and Alabama this evening and will likely cause some localized flooding troubles throughout the evening.  We are watching the warm front closely to the south and will likely be chasing if things become unstable across south-central portions of our area by morning.  We will be updating throughout the night time hours as conditions warrant.  Go over your tornado plan if you are in the watch area. 

Storms are increasing this afternoon on the warm conveyor belt aloft north of the warm front.  This is causing some storms to develop with some hail in the strongest updrafts.  These storms don’t have the potential to become tornadic due to no low level instability.  These cells are all elevated in nature.  Heavy rainfall could become a problem by later tonight and a Flash Flood Watch has been placed for much of the area. 

we continue to watch the potential for some severe storms on tomorrow as the slight risk has been nudged northward again toward the Montgomery area.  Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes look to be the main threats due to the moist environment ahead of the system and high low level shear values.  Heavy rainfall could be the biggest threat of everything with this system.  We will continue to monitor it.

Well, an interesting setup is evolving across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and south Alabama this evening and over the next 48 hours.  A shallow layer of cold air will hamper forecasts area wide and will set the stage for sleet, freezing rain, and even snowfall along the northern edge of the precip mass expected to develop.  Some precipitation has reached the ground across south Mississippi and Alabama this evening with sleet being reported across parts of Jackson County, MS and Mobile County, AL.  Heavier areas of winter wx are expected to begin developing later on tonight and the shield will expand northward toward the Jackson and Birmingham metro areas into Thursday.

There is a problem evident across several locations for precip this evening given it’s light nature.  The soundings indicate a decent amount of drying in the lower levels of the atmopshere.  Here is the sounding from Slidell, LA.

You can see the temperature (red) and dewpoint (green) lines separate down the 850 – 925mb levels begin to separate pretty significantly.  This indicates drier air at these levels and the rainfall will have to moisten up this part of the column via evaporation before we can see any appreciable precipitation at the surface.  A little further north…..the Birmingham, AL sounding shows this well also.

This will be something we have to watch in our area for some freezing rain, sleet, or even snow across Central Alabama.  Tonight, sleet and freezing rain will be possible south of I-85.  The heavier precip comes for us tomorrow.  Stay tuned…

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service offices in Memphis, Nashville, and Huntsville for most of there counties.  Memphis covered there western counties with Winter Weather Advisories for lesser amounts of snowfall.  I have some agreements and disagreements with some of these advisories…..and I will get into those after looking at the latest and forecast output.  To the maps….

Our upper level system is still digging to the west over portions of Texas at this hour.  The trough has yet to close over, but with very significant vort surrounding the system and indications of deepening….this should happen over the next several hours to our west.  You can see that the flow out of this level is out of the SW…..which will bring me to another key point.

You can see our developing upper low that I have marked to the west….but this is overlaid on current water vapor imagery.  The yellow colors indicate large mid level drying occurring to our SW and now intruding into Mississippi and west Alabama.  This will play havoc with the moisture column in the mid levels and likely dry out a good portion of the snow growth zone….at least for a while until the main low pressure system moves overhead….if it ends up moving across North Alabama.  The latest high res model runs indicate this happening somewhat. 

Here is the upper level low at 6AM on the WRF-ARW model.  This is a high resolution model that seems to be handling things pretty well in terms of the synoptic and low levels…along with precip fields so I will stick with it.  The core of the ULL goes right along the Tennessee border.  Usually, the highest QPF (accumulated precip.) is to the northwest and southeast of an upper level system.  The heaviest snow axis per this run should run from east of Memphis to Nashville to southern Kentucky.

Here is the 3hr precip forecast for the same time frame.  I have overlaid my “Heavy Snow Axis” over the model where I think the heaviest amounts will occur.  Given the model output and soundings, I think it is safe to say that Nashville could see upwards of 3-6” of accumulating snowfall….with maybe a 7” total somewhere.  The most likely place to see any heavy accumulating snowfall in Alabama will be the highest terrain in Northeast Alabama and the Shoals area.  I’m skeptical about NE AL because they could get dry slotted being in the SE quad of the upper level low as it is pivoting.  In other words….places like Skyline and Jackson County could be left dry.

The old saying is…”Upper Level Low, Weatherman’s Woe” and that could prove to be the case this time.  There is extreme difficulty in forecasting the dynamics and thermal profiles with these kind of systems…..along with precipitation fields.  This forecast looks pretty good as of now and I will stick with it.  So, I just don’t see the Huntsville counties verifying warning criteria snowfall…..but I hope you do!

We will post more updates throughout the evening as conditions deteriorate or warrant…

Here we are suggesting the major accumulations along and north of the I-20 corridor…..with 2”+ expected north of a Pickens to Shelby to Randolph County line.  The precipitation is expected to remain all snow in northern portions of the forecast area, thus we have adjusted the higher totals accordingly.

Now to the ice.  Areas south of I-20 are in for a potential significant icing event beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Do not be fooled when snow starts to fall at the very beginning.  Trust me…it will be changing over eventually.  Areas closer to I-20 will be the last to change to sleet or freezing rain, but it will happen.  Accumulations of .25”+ can cause a great deal of problems such as tree damage, frozen roads, power outages.  Here are a few tips to think about if you are in these icing locations…

• If you live in the country and rely on well water….when the power goes so does your well.
• Prepare with an alternative heat and cooking source if you are fully electric.  Camping grills and heaters are great for this kind of event.
• Check on the elderly!  Elderly people are very prone to serious health issues and even death during extreme winter events.
• Keep cash on you instead of debit/credit cards.  If you must get out…if the power is out at most locations cards will not work.
• STAY OFF THE ROADS!  We aren’t used to this kind of weather in our area….wrecks will be numerous if you travel.

Stay tuned with us for the latest details with out ever changing forecast as new information becomes available.  Prepare now because you are almost out of time.  Stay tuned…

Tornado watches are in effect for virtually the entire state of Mississippi throughout the evening into the overnight.  Stay aware of the weather situation as this activity could spread into west Alabama…..especially west of I-65 during the overnight hours.  More to come…