Archive for the ‘Warnings’ Category

Well, an interesting setup is evolving across portions of Louisiana, Mississippi, and south Alabama this evening and over the next 48 hours.  A shallow layer of cold air will hamper forecasts area wide and will set the stage for sleet, freezing rain, and even snowfall along the northern edge of the precip mass expected to develop.  Some precipitation has reached the ground across south Mississippi and Alabama this evening with sleet being reported across parts of Jackson County, MS and Mobile County, AL.  Heavier areas of winter wx are expected to begin developing later on tonight and the shield will expand northward toward the Jackson and Birmingham metro areas into Thursday.

There is a problem evident across several locations for precip this evening given it’s light nature.  The soundings indicate a decent amount of drying in the lower levels of the atmopshere.  Here is the sounding from Slidell, LA.

You can see the temperature (red) and dewpoint (green) lines separate down the 850 – 925mb levels begin to separate pretty significantly.  This indicates drier air at these levels and the rainfall will have to moisten up this part of the column via evaporation before we can see any appreciable precipitation at the surface.  A little further north…..the Birmingham, AL sounding shows this well also.

This will be something we have to watch in our area for some freezing rain, sleet, or even snow across Central Alabama.  Tonight, sleet and freezing rain will be possible south of I-85.  The heavier precip comes for us tomorrow.  Stay tuned…

Winter Storm Warnings have been issued by the National Weather Service offices in Memphis, Nashville, and Huntsville for most of there counties.  Memphis covered there western counties with Winter Weather Advisories for lesser amounts of snowfall.  I have some agreements and disagreements with some of these advisories…..and I will get into those after looking at the latest and forecast output.  To the maps….

Our upper level system is still digging to the west over portions of Texas at this hour.  The trough has yet to close over, but with very significant vort surrounding the system and indications of deepening….this should happen over the next several hours to our west.  You can see that the flow out of this level is out of the SW…..which will bring me to another key point.

You can see our developing upper low that I have marked to the west….but this is overlaid on current water vapor imagery.  The yellow colors indicate large mid level drying occurring to our SW and now intruding into Mississippi and west Alabama.  This will play havoc with the moisture column in the mid levels and likely dry out a good portion of the snow growth zone….at least for a while until the main low pressure system moves overhead….if it ends up moving across North Alabama.  The latest high res model runs indicate this happening somewhat. 

Here is the upper level low at 6AM on the WRF-ARW model.  This is a high resolution model that seems to be handling things pretty well in terms of the synoptic and low levels…along with precip fields so I will stick with it.  The core of the ULL goes right along the Tennessee border.  Usually, the highest QPF (accumulated precip.) is to the northwest and southeast of an upper level system.  The heaviest snow axis per this run should run from east of Memphis to Nashville to southern Kentucky.

Here is the 3hr precip forecast for the same time frame.  I have overlaid my “Heavy Snow Axis” over the model where I think the heaviest amounts will occur.  Given the model output and soundings, I think it is safe to say that Nashville could see upwards of 3-6” of accumulating snowfall….with maybe a 7” total somewhere.  The most likely place to see any heavy accumulating snowfall in Alabama will be the highest terrain in Northeast Alabama and the Shoals area.  I’m skeptical about NE AL because they could get dry slotted being in the SE quad of the upper level low as it is pivoting.  In other words….places like Skyline and Jackson County could be left dry.

The old saying is…”Upper Level Low, Weatherman’s Woe” and that could prove to be the case this time.  There is extreme difficulty in forecasting the dynamics and thermal profiles with these kind of systems…..along with precipitation fields.  This forecast looks pretty good as of now and I will stick with it.  So, I just don’t see the Huntsville counties verifying warning criteria snowfall…..but I hope you do!

We will post more updates throughout the evening as conditions deteriorate or warrant…

With the Winter Storm Warning now in place….we decided that it was time to update our forecast accordingly to what we are seeing this evening.  It still looks like a good bit of snow and ice will fall across the viewing area starting late tomorrow and into early Monday.  Here is the latest updated snowfall graphic that we have come up with

Here we are suggesting the major accumulations along and north of the I-20 corridor…..with 2”+ expected north of a Pickens to Shelby to Randolph County line.  The precipitation is expected to remain all snow in northern portions of the forecast area, thus we have adjusted the higher totals accordingly.

Now to the ice.  Areas south of I-20 are in for a potential significant icing event beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Do not be fooled when snow starts to fall at the very beginning.  Trust me…it will be changing over eventually.  Areas closer to I-20 will be the last to change to sleet or freezing rain, but it will happen.  Accumulations of .25”+ can cause a great deal of problems such as tree damage, frozen roads, power outages.  Here are a few tips to think about if you are in these icing locations…

• If you live in the country and rely on well water….when the power goes so does your well.
• Prepare with an alternative heat and cooking source if you are fully electric.  Camping grills and heaters are great for this kind of event.
• Check on the elderly!  Elderly people are very prone to serious health issues and even death during extreme winter events.
• Keep cash on you instead of debit/credit cards.  If you must get out…if the power is out at most locations cards will not work.
• STAY OFF THE ROADS!  We aren’t used to this kind of weather in our area….wrecks will be numerous if you travel.

Stay tuned with us for the latest details with out ever changing forecast as new information becomes available.  Prepare now because you are almost out of time.  Stay tuned…

Supercells are now becoming a problem in the Jackson forecast area.  These two tornado warned storms are just southwest of Jackson.  Nothing has been reported on the ground with damage at this moment, but these cells are exhibiting strong rotation. 

Tornado watches are in effect for virtually the entire state of Mississippi throughout the evening into the overnight.  Stay aware of the weather situation as this activity could spread into west Alabama…..especially west of I-65 during the overnight hours.  More to come…

A few days before Christmas we were pegging on a potential Christmas winter storm that could plague parts of the southland with there first white Christmas ever.  This all turned to fruition during the early morning hours of the 25th and gave most of us what we had all been waiting for.  To the setup…

The night before the short range models started coming in more aggressive with precipitation.  These models started showing accumulations throughout the southeast region including north and central Alabama.  Here is a model image of the 00z BAMS model that is derived from Baron Services in Huntsville, Alabama.  Baron Services provides broadcast media with in house computer graphics for radar and weather modeling.

This model began showing the 2” criteria snowfall that is border line for a winter storm warning in this part of the country.  So, now that things began locking in on a greater snowfall potential we were watching this system develop from our homes.

The morning of Christmas Eve, December 24th, our system was developing in western Texas and to the north across the Dakotas.  We watched from our in-house system as the upper air system strengthened and moved across Texas as snowfall continued to move southward from Illinois, Iowa, Missouri, and Kentucky.

The surface low began to crank in far south Texas and precipitation was much more expansive that forecast by the short term models over portions of Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas.  This led many forecasters to believe that even with a more aggressive approach that the models may be coming in a bit too weak with the system.  The European, the most aggressive model of them all, was beginning to look like a good solution to place your bets on.  By the late evening hours and early morning hours on Christmas…..winter weather advisories/warnings began to fly.

It is nearly unheard of to have winter weather advisories down to Dothan, Alabama any time of the year much less Christmas.  However, this was a good call as snowfall began transitioning southward the morning of the 25th as our surface low transitioned along the coast with new upper level energy moving in to bring the colder air aloft with it.  Local radars began showing the transition zone as a “bright banding” feature.

Above is the transition zone around 10 am across portions of Jefferson, Shelby, and Talladega County Alabama on the leading edge of the precipitation.  This bright banding was due to some evaporation of the heavy precip. aloft.  It was reaching the surface in the form of sleet and snow as the column above cooled to isothermal.  In other words…..the heavy precipitation brought the colder air down with it to the surface allowing the mixture or changeover to all snow.  Basically….here was the end result for most areas.

Snowfall totals varied across many locations with Central Alabama receiving 1-2” in most cases with heavier totals of 4”+ in the Huntsville area.  Portions of Jackson County took 6” with power flickers being reported before the snow ended.  Black ice also became a problem when all was said and done as the cold air and windy conditions settled in.  Another winter weather advisory was required on 12/26 due to a large upper level low dropping in and bringing in colder air aloft allowing the low to wring out all over the moisture available in the atmosphere.

As the low moved northeast…..the BAMS models was pinpointing a potential major blizzard for the northeast.  Parts of NJ, NY, MA, etc. expected to get 2’ of snow!  Here is the BAMS model assessment of the situation from 00z 12/26.

Now…..here are the results from Vimeo user Michael Black of New Jersey.  These are images shot from a DSLR in a 5 minutes sequence during the blizzard.  Amazing 20” snowfall for these folks.

This is likely something that many of us in the south may never see again in our lifetime.  This is the first recorded white Christmas for parts of the Birmingham CWA since records have been kept.

Alot of issues are ongoing and have already occurred with icing across the area from Troy on to the north.  The Freezing Rain Advisory has been allowed to expire west of I-65, but it’s still in effect until 3PM east of 65.  A total of 3 deaths have been reported thus far with many serious injuries.  Parts of I-59 have been closed as well.  Here is a look at surface temperatures and what to expect for the rest of the afternoon.

Icing potential should end for all areas including the far northeast counties by 5PM.  Warmer air is moving in from the SW and Jackson, MS is hovering near 60°!!  We should warm up even into the overnight hours and reach a temp near 60° tomorrow in Central Alabama.

Here is some video of the sleet/freezing rain from Childersburg.  YouTube didn’t convert very well, but you can see the traffic continuing with the icing ongoing as well as the ice bouncing off of vehicles and accumulating on stepping stones. 

Stay safe during the rest of your Wednesday afternoon.  Conditions will improve this evening.

Storms are really going now and tornado watches are up to the Alabama state line from US-82 southward in Mississippi.  Several warnings just came out for the Jackson, MS warning area and these storms are increasing and intensifying.  This is expected to continue eastward late into the night and tomorrow across portions of our area.  One confirmed tornado in Central Louisiana has destroyed well built brick homes near the Atlanta community.  This is a serious situation. 

We will be deploying as things get rocky in our vicinity later tonight or tomorrow morning.  You can monitor our live streaming video at the top of the page or on WBRC-TV FOX 6 once severe weather coverage picks up.  I’ll be with meteorologist James-Paul Dice and Wes Wyatt once continuous coverage begins.  More later…

This afternoon an isolated thunderstorm or shower formed ahead of the cold front moving through the Jackson, MS forecast area and developed some pretty tight rotation.  This cell has apparently done some damage in parts of Simpson County due to a possible tornado.  Here is a glimpse of the cell as it moved off to the east with the damage markers indicated.  It did look rather stout after passing through.

This evening Tropical Storm Earl continues to get better organized east of the British and US Virgin Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph once again.  The system has had a hard time becoming well organized due to its very fast motion over the last couple of days. 

The microwave imagery once again this evening shows that Earl is not very symmertrical in terms of a well defined inner core.  Over the next day or so he is expected to slow down a bit and be less influenced by Danielle’s outflow….therefore we expect him to become a major hurricane over the next 2 days.  Track is still very tricky at this point, but anyone along the east coast of Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close watch on the track and intensity forecasts of Earl.

Alex looks to be strengthening this morning as visible satellite imagery shows deepening thunderstorm tops around the center of circulation.  A pressure drop to 959mb was indicated by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft just before the 7am advisory this morning.  Alex currently has maximum sustained winds of 80mph and is moving NW @ 7mph as of the latest 10am CDT advisory.  This storm still has several hours over water and will affect portions of southern Texas even if the center makes landfall south of the border.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay, TX south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  We expect Alex to strengthen to a category two hurricane later today.  Alex still has the potential to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall sometime late tonight or early tomorrow.