Tornado Watch #1 has been issued this evening across portions of Missouri and Illinois for a strong cold front that has sparked some severe/tornado warned storms across the region this evening.  It looks like no confirmed reports of tornadoes are out at this time, but several reports of hail greater than .75” in diameter have been.  The tornado watch runs for the next several hours until 7AM central time.

On another note….a SLGT risk of severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center around midnight for today across portions of Central Mississippi into Central/Northern Alabama.  The primary threats remain to be wind/hail but an isolated tornado occurrence is possible as well.  We will have to watch this potential through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow and we may have teams in the field if conditions warrant. 

There is the potential for touring to take place as well.  Inquire about tours to brett@livestormsnow.com ASAP to make reservations! 

It looks like we have a more active period of weather ahead for the coming days as we go into the weeks end.  Some isolated severe storms are expected over OK/W AR tomorrow evening as our initial impulse begins to kick out.  Storms will start firing late in the evening over OK and AR and continue to spread eastward into the night and during the day on Saturday.  The SPC has issued a SLGT risk (shown above) across portions of the deep south for Saturday.  The risks look to be mainly damaging winds and large hail, but wind profiles do support some isolated super cell development that would include tornadoes if they form.  We will likely hit the field early Saturday morning if this is to occur. 

The chances decrease somewhat on Sunday, but there is still some chance of severe weather even then.  Our final impulse will roll through on Monday evening with another heightened risk of severe storms.  Tornadoes could be more common with this impulse as wind profiles look better and surface instability is in place.  We are still 5 days away from this shot, so we will get through Saturday first and then have a better determination of Monday’s system.

This is the latest Day 2 outlook from the SPC in terms of the highest threat of severe weather on Monday.  There is a slight risk in tact for the northern 2/3rd’s of Alabama as well as northeast Mississippi and north Georgia.  The parameters are there for some isolated super cell convection along with the threat of tornadoes.  The tornadic threat will be prevalent with any cells that can form ahead of the line as well as cells embedded within the line.  Shear will weaken with time, but moisture is already outdoing the forecast and can overcome the shear values at times.  We will be updating with our chase target mapping for Monday morning when we plan to deploy as well as updating with our own risk graphics.  However, the SPC does mention the potential for higher probabilities and maybe significant probabilities in later outlooks as the features become more clear. 

Stay with us as we prepare for our first real chase of the 2011 storm season. 

La Nina is in full force as our forecaster, Fred Gossage, has explained in the post below concerning our potential weather effects ahead for most of the country.  Surface temperatures are well below normal and the waters below the surface continue to cool.  These temperatures are likely to reach the surface as we get “trade wind” bursts near the equator that occur every so often.  These bursts allow the water to churn or “upwell” just the same as the waters upwell during hurricanes.  This could have a rather large impact on our severe weather season down the road and we are monitoring it with a close eye in the forecast center.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather across eastern portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, central and southern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.  Conditions are expected to become favorable for the formation of some tornadoes across the region this afternoon with a 10% risk of tornadoes across portions of the area pictured above. 

Current surface analysis shows an intensifying 1000mb surface cyclone across portions of northern Kansas with a dewpoint surge occurring out ahead of a sharpening dryline/cold front.  This front will bring a major temperature contrast to the region as well as the southeast in coming days.  As better upper level winds move into the area later today….thunderstorms are expected to form and some may spin causing isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.  The mid levels are rather moist today, so visibility will be limited and instability may be hampered a bit.  However, there is still plenty of potential with a moist low level environment as well as shear ahead of the cold front. 

There will be numerous chasers in the field today from ChaserTV and Severe Studios.  We will monitor the situation as we approach game time this afternoon.  More later.

No severe weather is expected and the rain should be a welcome sight for most.  Enjoy your Sunday and worship services today.

The main threat from these storms will be damaging wind gusts. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out either. If you must be outside today, stay close to a weather source, and act accordingly should you be caught in any of these storms.

A weather watch is now looking possible for portions of Central Alabama this afternoon as the environment is becoming very unstable with afternoon heating and sunshine.  The SPC will upgrade portions of the area to a convective slight risk on the 1630z update….or around 11:30am.  We will monitor the situation and keep you updated on the sitaution….the SPC text and statement of the MCD follows…

 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN AND WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191530Z - 191630Z

   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NRN MS THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL AL...NWRN
   GA...ERN TN AND WRN NC. THIS AREA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
   RISK...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   AT MID-DAY AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH ERN KY AND ERN TN THEN WWD INTO NRN AL AND NRN MS. THE
   ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT IS
   WEAK WNWLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL LINES ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAN IS USUALLY EXPECTED IN A
   PULSE STORM ENVIRONMENT.

Well, one would know on the day that my second child will be born that a slight risk of severe storms would be issued for portions of North Alabama.  That’s okay though, because today is my sons day and that is much more important.  Anyway, the biggest risk looks to be damaging winds and hail this afternoon with bulk shear values of around 30-40 knots across the valley.

The image above is of CAPE values during peak heating ranging between 2500-3500 J/Kg.  This will aid in fueling the fire as storms do get going.  Hopefully I can get other members of the storm trackers to step in today if things happen to get out of hand, but we will keep you posted as much as possible.  I will have a post later on the condition of our new one. 

-Brett