This evening Igor remains a major hurricane in the Atlantic, but the purpose is mainly to show off our new in house GREarth software from Gibson Ridge Software.  This is going to be key in forecasting the development and path of tropical cyclones, severe weather outbreaks, and numerous other events….including winter weather events for our area.  You will see more previews of this software in the future.

The latest from the NHC was very interesting on 97L….

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

Good morning, Earl!  He is nearing major status over the northern Leeward Islands this morning where some hurricane conditions are being felt.  Earl has continued to intensify overnight and is becoming very symmetric.  Very cold cloud tops surround the warm and deep center of Earl this morning as he continues to generally track toward the WNW with a wobble due W at times. 

Above is a very good presentation of Earl and his outflow pattern getting better over time as the shear decreases north of the system.  Earl and his wind field continue to expand this morning with TS force winds being felt as far south as the Central islands and almost into Puerto Rico now as the outer bands rapidly approach.  This trend is expected to continue throughout the day and Earl could be a major category 4 or better storm by this evening.

Earl is still expected to turn toward the NNW into a weakness very evident on the image above.  The line of clouds extending from the Central Gulf of Mexico to off the SE coast of Florida is indicative of this weakness on the satellite.  This upper level trough that is shearing out over the area should open the door for Earl to move directly into it and hopefully stay off of the east coast of the US.  It will be a close call.  More later…

Earl is getting ready to pound the islands as he continues to intensify pretty rapidly this evening and has become a category two hurricane.  Hurricane warnings are in effect and hurricane conditions are expected for the islands over the next 12-24 hours.  Earl is now expected to become a dangerous hurricane while passing near the islands so please take the warnings seriously. 

97L is still showing a decent spin and we are looking for a n increase in convective development overtop the system this evening.  If this happens to occur….we could be dealing with a tropical depression on Monday and possibly tropical storm Fiona soon after/

Earl has became a hurricane today and developed a rather intense inner core over the last couple of hours.  The CDO or Earl is becoming well defined and he is on his way to become a major hurricane within the next 24-36 hours if not sooner than that.  The forward speed has slowed slightly and is allowing for the storm to become more organized and compact.  The northern Leeward Islands should have there hurricane preparations completed NOW!

Earl is showing a much better outflow signal today as Danielle has been pushed toward the north and sheared apart as the upper trough axis pushes toward the east north of Earl.  This should eventually be an influence in turning Earl more northerly within the next 72 hours and will hopefully keep it away from the east coast of the US.

Behind Earl…..we have 97L….future Fiona.  This system has the biggest potential to bring big trouble to the US in the form of some kind of landfall.  The latest 12z European shows a disaster situation for portions of the northern Gulf as a major hurricane barrels toward the coastline in about 10 days.

That is likely a Category 3-5 storm in the Gulf per this run of the European weather model.  Surface pressures of 939mb support winds in the 130+ mph range which would devastate the coast line.  We will continue to monitor this situation as the days go by and things begin to develop.  Keep in mind….Fiona isn’t even a storm yet but many of the weather models and ensembles to develop it into a large, major hurricane. 

This evening Tropical Storm Earl continues to get better organized east of the British and US Virgin Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph once again.  The system has had a hard time becoming well organized due to its very fast motion over the last couple of days. 

The microwave imagery once again this evening shows that Earl is not very symmertrical in terms of a well defined inner core.  Over the next day or so he is expected to slow down a bit and be less influenced by Danielle’s outflow….therefore we expect him to become a major hurricane over the next 2 days.  Track is still very tricky at this point, but anyone along the east coast of Florida to the Carolinas should keep a close watch on the track and intensity forecasts of Earl.