Rainfall is beginning to move into western counties at a slow pace as a convective complex moves across Central/Southern Mississippi.  This complex contains most of the wind and afformentioned severe threat with it.  If anyone is to see a severe cell or two, I would think it woul dbe SW of the Montgomery metro area with this complex.  Elsewhere, some elevated thunderstorms are showing up around Starkville – Huntsville and into West Alabama were large scale lift is present.  Heavy rain and a few gusty winds will continue to be the big threats along with deadly lightinng.  Again, don’t expect too much severe weather this evening.

A tornado watch is now in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Texas until 8pm Central time this evening.  Looks as if the main threats from these storms will be wind and hail, but an isolated tornado will be possible as low level shear increases this afternoon into the evening hours.  We will continue to monitor the threats and will update you if any of our teams end up hitting the field in this region.

Tornado Watch #1 has been issued this evening across portions of Missouri and Illinois for a strong cold front that has sparked some severe/tornado warned storms across the region this evening.  It looks like no confirmed reports of tornadoes are out at this time, but several reports of hail greater than .75” in diameter have been.  The tornado watch runs for the next several hours until 7AM central time.

On another note….a SLGT risk of severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center around midnight for today across portions of Central Mississippi into Central/Northern Alabama.  The primary threats remain to be wind/hail but an isolated tornado occurrence is possible as well.  We will have to watch this potential through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow and we may have teams in the field if conditions warrant. 

There is the potential for touring to take place as well.  Inquire about tours to brett@livestormsnow.com ASAP to make reservations! 

Rainfall is ongoing across portions of Alabama along the state line at this hour, but the rainfall is expected to pick up this afternoon.  Another wave of energy in the upper air will swing in and cause more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area through the early part of the day tomorrow.   Some river flooding could become a problem across western sections of the area.  Temperatures across the northern 2/3 of Alabama will remain too stable for any kind of severe activity….but things along the Gulf Coast could crank up later as the shortwave moves closer. 

The SPC upgraded a portion of the outlook area along the Gulf Coast to a slight risk around 10am this morning for the overnight hours tonight.  Shear will increase ahead of a mid level wave….as will some weak instability which could lead to a few damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes.  The risk runs roughly from Mobile to Dothan and southward. 

We will likely release a full summary on the December 22nd QLCS/low topped supercell tornado event in the coming days as we get video and pictures together of the happenings of that day.  Look for it in future postings. 

Here is the modeled reflectivity for around 9am tomorrow morning.  You can see a pretty intense shield of precipitation across TN/N MS and N AL.  This area will most likely be in the form of snow as an upper level low pressure area moves across the region.  Very cold temperatures aloft will likely allow this precip to stay in the form of snow through most of the day light hours underneath the low. 

Here is the accumulated snowfall through 9am tomorrow.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is showing some 2-3” totals along the AR/TN/MS border area with more snow still falling at a moderate pace.  You can see the model is showing accumulations sneaking into the picture across North Mississippi and Northwest Alabama during the same time frame.  The snow should just be entering NW sections of Alabama by this time.  We will monitor the trends and progression of this.

We will likely be deploying in the early AM hours for North Alabama to stream somewhere near Monte Sano during the snow event.  This event could drop some couple of inches on the higher elevations across Tennessee and maybe North Alabama.  This will be a situation you will want to pay attention to.  Click the Brett Adair and Eric Parker tab on LiveStormsNOW.com for live video during the event tomorrow.

We are now monitoring after some run to run consistency from the forecast models over the last few days of some snow potential for portions of North Alabama on Monday and into Tuesday with a powerful upper level low pressure area that is projected to move across the region.  The morning run of the GFS still pains some accumulating snowfall for places across North Alabama…such as the Shoals area….of nearly 3-5”.  Again, this is accumulating snowfall and not necessarily what falls.  Therefore, I feel that we may get a heavier band of snow across sections of N MS, AL and TN during this period.  More later on…

Increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front can be blamed on returning moisture across the area.  Temperatures are in the 60’s with some areas approaching 70 mainly across the south. 

Radar shows our showers moving northward and eastward from the Clanton/Prattville/Montgomery areas as moisture continues to advance into the area.  Dewpoints are into the mid 50’s at this point and should continue to climb over the next couple of days. 

We are monitoring a cold front that is currently coming out of the Kansas area that will bring some welcome rainfall to the area by mid week.  There is also the potential for members of the Alabama Storm Trackers to deploy to Texas for impending severe weather.  Wee will keep you informed.

Well….it looks like we are getting toward that time of the year folks where severe storms of the convective and winter variety will roam the US.  This weekend is no different.  Global models are indicating a strong trough ejecting out of the Rockies and moving across the central/northern plain states while beginning to take a negative tilt.  As of late, GFS trends indicate that instability values on the warm side of this system will be rather low due to limited moisture except along the far southern end of the front in parts of Texas.  It looks like some isolated severe storms could be possible mainly with wind being the problem in the form of downbursts along the front since the higher wind shear values will remain well north of the region.  Even though limited instability is present…we could see a cold core setup for some funnel/weak tornado formation further north across NE KS/MO/SE NE where the colder upper level setup will be in place along wiith high wind shear values.  Instability could be maximized in this region given the cold temps aloft so this is a situation we will need to closely monitor.  Elsewhere along the frontal boundary…a line of low topped showers/convection will be likely along the boundary itself.  Don’t expect a ton of severe weather unless instability values increase.  However, as we all know it doesn’t take much this time of the year so we will watch it.

Further north….in the cold sector of the storm a pretty hefty winter event will be in store for portions of the Dakotas, northern Nebraska, and Minnesota. Snowfall amounts in excess of 4″ will be likely just NW of the surface low track that is expected to move from the KC metro toward portions of SE Minnesota. There will be significant snows in portions of the region, but we will conintue to monitor the situation before putting out some kind of map on this.  

There is some potential that we could have chasers in the field if this ends up being more severe than we expect.  Check back for frequent updates as we monitor the situation.

The coolest weather of the fall season is likely coming over the next week.  A major east coast storm is forecast to develop and bring down much cooler temperatures with it by the 20th of October.  Some rain and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front for our area, but severe weather doesn’t look to be a major issue this time.  Cool air will likely be the main story line.

The HPC now puts some rather hefty rainfall totals across portions of Alabama into the weekend and next week.  Currently….the NHC continues to hold at Tropical Depression status.  There continues to be a high likelihood that Lee will be born sometime in the next 12 hours.  We will update more as information becomes available…