Archive for the ‘Chase Potential’ Category

Our current high resolution radar shows some lighter showers spreading into the area this hour with the bulk of the rainfall staying south of I-20 where it has remained most of the day.  It looks like some showery activity can be expected for the rest of the night across most of the area with the heaviest rainfall staying to the south.  This will begin to taper off during the day on Monday and give way to mostly cloudy skies.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued there latest day 2 convective outlook for Tuesday.  The threat has expanded some to the west and they mention higher instability values potentially being present as temperatures are a big warmer on current model runs for the Mississippi area.  There is now mention of rotating storms with a highly sheared low level environment and the potential for a couple of super cell thunderstorms across LA/MS during this time.  We are going to upgrade our chase status to MODERATE for the likelihood of chasing across the Jackson metro area on Tuesday.  Continue to monitor the blog concerning this as things may change before Tuesday.

Now….we won’t talk much about it but the models are starting to pick up on something pretty big for the weekend.  This is the Canadian model that has performed pretty good in the longer range this winter….and it shows some Winter mischief across Mississippi and Alabama in the form of ice and snow on Saturday.  We will fine tune things before then, but the idea is definitely on the table.

Wow…..what a difference a few days make.  We had high temperatures in the 70’s across much of Alabama today with many places nearing record levels. Yes, I said record heat levels instead of cold!  Enjoy it while it lasts because there is more wintery type temperatures in the forecast.  However, today was picture perfect for a day of fishing at the lake or just playing outside with the kids. 

Now….we will look at the current weather maps…

Tempeatures are running in the 40’s and 50’s across the area this evening with clear skies overhead.  We should radiate down into the 30’s with no problem before too much longer.  You will note the spike in temperatures to our west in the Dallas/San Antonio vicinity ahead of our next storm system.  This is setting things up for parts of the southern plains and Midwest to get a rather significant winter storm that is expected to stretch from Oklahoma City to the Great Lakes by Tuesday and Wednesday.

Radar shows some scattered activity breaking out across parts of Texas ahead of the surface front and associated area of low pressure.  The main shortwave is still back over parts of northern Mexico….so it will likely be later tonight before and real established convection gets going and produces anything of significance. 

The SPC has a convective slight risk in place for portions of the SE Texas area mainly for the potential for some wind and hail later in the overnight hours.  This isn’t expected to translate eastward at this point for tomorrow or Monday because we are too dry for any kind of severe weather.

This wave will effect us with some rain late tomorrow night….likely after midnight.  The totals shouldn’t be impressive as the wave will be shearing out across the area and the main precipitation will be decaying.  Totals of less than .25” are generally expected and are advertised by the NAM above.

Now….we are looking into the idea of the second wave that will bring the winter storm across the plains and Midwest possibly setting the stage for some severe weather across the Lower Mississippi Valley region by Tuesday.  The setup involves a strong trough going negatively tilted while intensifying wind fields overspread the area.  The general downfall for these kind of events in the winter is the lack of instability that is associated.  Dynamics can offset instability at times and this could be one of those cases….

These 500mb wind fields are extremely strong and are divergent across the eastern Ozarks and Mississippi Delta region.  This map is valid at 3pm on Tuesday.  The trough is taking a negative tilt as the surface low is beginning to accelerate out of E AR/W MS.  This is a prime setup for severe storms across the deep south.

These shear values of >45+ knots are indicative of very strong low level turning in the atmosphere.  These values are from about 5000ft to the surface.  This indicates extreme shearing will be present in the lower levels of thunderstorms that are able to develop and that they will likely obtain rotation if an updraft can become sustained.  These dynamics will be moving east and northeast.  From this, I do get the idea that damaging winds and potential for some tornadoes will exist across portions of Mississippi and later into West Alabama.

These are the 3km EHI values.  This is an “energy-helicity index” that indicates where the best shear and instability will be present.  Values over 1 are indicative of the potential for significant tornado development.  You can see a bulls eye of near 2 over Natchez, MS at 4pm on Tuesday.  This has been steadily on the rise for the last few model runs as somewhat higher lapse rates and instability values are coming into play.

Finally…here is the forecast sounding from the Jackson, MS area at 3pm off of the 00z NAM model. This shows a very moist column.  The temperature is steadily falling with height and does so pretty rapidly from about 650mb to 300mb.  There is a dry layer there that indicates some potential instability and faster falling temperatures with height.  We will watch for drier air around the 700-750mb level.  This will be key in the formation of deeper instability values.  More dry air at this level can mean less thick cloud cover and higher temperatures in the lower levels creating a “steeper” lapse rate….or cooling of temperature with height.

So, what are we saying?  Basically….I expect the best severe threat to be west of Alabama due to the time of day and nature of the system.  Sure there will be a threat during the overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning for some isolated damaging winds and maybe a tornado or two, but the better threat sure seems to be over Mississippi at this point.  We are likely going to chase this system if instability parameters continue to improve across the region.  If we can keep the widespread convection at bay….there could be a few tornadoes over there.

We will post more on our plans over the next few days, but for now back to getting the laptop ready for “chase mode” as well as the truck.  Have a good weekend!

With the Winter Storm Warning now in place….we decided that it was time to update our forecast accordingly to what we are seeing this evening.  It still looks like a good bit of snow and ice will fall across the viewing area starting late tomorrow and into early Monday.  Here is the latest updated snowfall graphic that we have come up with

Here we are suggesting the major accumulations along and north of the I-20 corridor…..with 2”+ expected north of a Pickens to Shelby to Randolph County line.  The precipitation is expected to remain all snow in northern portions of the forecast area, thus we have adjusted the higher totals accordingly.

Now to the ice.  Areas south of I-20 are in for a potential significant icing event beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Do not be fooled when snow starts to fall at the very beginning.  Trust me…it will be changing over eventually.  Areas closer to I-20 will be the last to change to sleet or freezing rain, but it will happen.  Accumulations of .25”+ can cause a great deal of problems such as tree damage, frozen roads, power outages.  Here are a few tips to think about if you are in these icing locations…

• If you live in the country and rely on well water….when the power goes so does your well.
• Prepare with an alternative heat and cooking source if you are fully electric.  Camping grills and heaters are great for this kind of event.
• Check on the elderly!  Elderly people are very prone to serious health issues and even death during extreme winter events.
• Keep cash on you instead of debit/credit cards.  If you must get out…if the power is out at most locations cards will not work.
• STAY OFF THE ROADS!  We aren’t used to this kind of weather in our area….wrecks will be numerous if you travel.

Stay tuned with us for the latest details with out ever changing forecast as new information becomes available.  Prepare now because you are almost out of time.  Stay tuned…

After looking at everything this morning….I believe that we are still in decent shape with maybe a few changes needed on snow totals and ice accumulations later on this afternoon once we get a full suite and days worth of data.  Current indications are that we may need to adjust our icing totals upward south of the I-20 corridor.  We will get into that later.

We are planning to build a large page with our team members live video cameras from different locations around the state.  If you are interested in possibly helping us out and would like for your camera possibly shown on a local news affiliate during the storm….send me a message to bamastormchaser@gmail.com and we will get you setup and ready to stream the ice and/or snow event at your location.  This will in the process help us with real time views to correlate radar data with what is actually happening.

Our next update will come later in the evening as we prepare our next call on the winter weather situation across the deep south.  Have a great Saturday!

I don’t like to hear of fatalities when I get up in the morning…..and we already have three in the small community of Cincinnati in Washington County, AR from and early morning tornado that has destroyed at least one brick home and several structures.  Tornado watches and warnings continue to be in effect for portions of Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri at this hour.

These storms intensified rapidly as they pushed across the OK/AR state line this morning into the warm, juicy flow of air coming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.  There is more potential for such an event to unfold further east today.

The 12z sounding from Jackson, MS indicates a loaded gun type setup with quite the inversion around the 775mb level of the atmosphere.  This dry air aloft will likely aid in developing potential instability that could be unleashed if this cap breaks.  Given the incredible shear values…. it is likely that storms/showers will spin from the near the onset ahead of a massive mid level trough that will shoot northeast later in the period.

Our in-house mesoscale WRF model indicates that the capping should be broken shortly after noon with convection firing across most of Mississippi and potentially into west Alabama.  Shear values will be supportive of super cell structures with the potential for tornadoes.  This is a developing situation and one that we will possible deploy on for a chase within the next hour or so.  Stay tuned for more updates regarding this potential.

Storms are really going now and tornado watches are up to the Alabama state line from US-82 southward in Mississippi.  Several warnings just came out for the Jackson, MS warning area and these storms are increasing and intensifying.  This is expected to continue eastward late into the night and tomorrow across portions of our area.  One confirmed tornado in Central Louisiana has destroyed well built brick homes near the Atlanta community.  This is a serious situation. 

We will be deploying as things get rocky in our vicinity later tonight or tomorrow morning.  You can monitor our live streaming video at the top of the page or on WBRC-TV FOX 6 once severe weather coverage picks up.  I’ll be with meteorologist James-Paul Dice and Wes Wyatt once continuous coverage begins.  More later…

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather for areas just to our southwest on Monday as a strong surface and upper level system will approach our area.  The risk of damaging winds and tornadoes are involved with this system.  For our area….we are continuing to monitor the progression of instability and the higher dewpoints on the numerical model guidance.  This will be critical in determining where and when/if any severe weather will occur.

The NAM (short range model) and GFS/ECMWF all have different timing.  The GFS is the fastest with the system with the NAM being the slower, more unstable model.  This model gives us our best shot at severe weather with a slower cold frontal passage.  This allows the moisture to surge further north on the model.

Timing will be key in all of this, but at this time areas south of I-20 stand the best chance at getting into the severe stuff on late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  More later with specifics on the potential threat.

The next cold front is going to be coming into the middle of the country by Monday as a powerful upper air system gets going to the west.  A wedge frontal boundary is going to play havoc over portions of east Alabama as a high pressure system in the north east intensifies pushing drier air in from the northeast…..as a low pressure system begins to wrap up in the central plains.  This will be a true clash of the air masses. 

In the end, the moist air will begin to win the battle as the cold front approaches later Monday night into Tuesday and heavy rain and some strong storms will be possible.  I’m not sold on severe weather at this time due to limited instability.  However, if we can get at least marginally unstable….the wind dynamics will provide plenty of shear for severe storms to form *if* unstable air can make it into the area.

Continue to monitor us for further details on the potential for some severe weather as we approach the Monday night/Tuesday time frame.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather across eastern portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, central and southern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.  Conditions are expected to become favorable for the formation of some tornadoes across the region this afternoon with a 10% risk of tornadoes across portions of the area pictured above. 

Current surface analysis shows an intensifying 1000mb surface cyclone across portions of northern Kansas with a dewpoint surge occurring out ahead of a sharpening dryline/cold front.  This front will bring a major temperature contrast to the region as well as the southeast in coming days.  As better upper level winds move into the area later today….thunderstorms are expected to form and some may spin causing isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.  The mid levels are rather moist today, so visibility will be limited and instability may be hampered a bit.  However, there is still plenty of potential with a moist low level environment as well as shear ahead of the cold front. 

There will be numerous chasers in the field today from ChaserTV and Severe Studios.  We will monitor the situation as we approach game time this afternoon.  More later.

Advisories on Tropical Storm Paula will be soon initiated by the NHC.  Air Force RECON is finding stronger winds by the minute from the flight.  This is a rapidly developing storm system and could cause some problems down the road.  We will wait on the models to initialize later and go from there in terms of where this thing may head.