Archive for the ‘Chase Potential’ Category

With the Winter Storm Warning now in place….we decided that it was time to update our forecast accordingly to what we are seeing this evening.  It still looks like a good bit of snow and ice will fall across the viewing area starting late tomorrow and into early Monday.  Here is the latest updated snowfall graphic that we have come up with

Here we are suggesting the major accumulations along and north of the I-20 corridor…..with 2”+ expected north of a Pickens to Shelby to Randolph County line.  The precipitation is expected to remain all snow in northern portions of the forecast area, thus we have adjusted the higher totals accordingly.

Now to the ice.  Areas south of I-20 are in for a potential significant icing event beginning tomorrow afternoon.  Do not be fooled when snow starts to fall at the very beginning.  Trust me…it will be changing over eventually.  Areas closer to I-20 will be the last to change to sleet or freezing rain, but it will happen.  Accumulations of .25”+ can cause a great deal of problems such as tree damage, frozen roads, power outages.  Here are a few tips to think about if you are in these icing locations…

• If you live in the country and rely on well water….when the power goes so does your well.
• Prepare with an alternative heat and cooking source if you are fully electric.  Camping grills and heaters are great for this kind of event.
• Check on the elderly!  Elderly people are very prone to serious health issues and even death during extreme winter events.
• Keep cash on you instead of debit/credit cards.  If you must get out…if the power is out at most locations cards will not work.
• STAY OFF THE ROADS!  We aren’t used to this kind of weather in our area….wrecks will be numerous if you travel.

Stay tuned with us for the latest details with out ever changing forecast as new information becomes available.  Prepare now because you are almost out of time.  Stay tuned…

After looking at everything this morning….I believe that we are still in decent shape with maybe a few changes needed on snow totals and ice accumulations later on this afternoon once we get a full suite and days worth of data.  Current indications are that we may need to adjust our icing totals upward south of the I-20 corridor.  We will get into that later.

We are planning to build a large page with our team members live video cameras from different locations around the state.  If you are interested in possibly helping us out and would like for your camera possibly shown on a local news affiliate during the storm….send me a message to bamastormchaser@gmail.com and we will get you setup and ready to stream the ice and/or snow event at your location.  This will in the process help us with real time views to correlate radar data with what is actually happening.

Our next update will come later in the evening as we prepare our next call on the winter weather situation across the deep south.  Have a great Saturday!

I don’t like to hear of fatalities when I get up in the morning…..and we already have three in the small community of Cincinnati in Washington County, AR from and early morning tornado that has destroyed at least one brick home and several structures.  Tornado watches and warnings continue to be in effect for portions of Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri at this hour.

These storms intensified rapidly as they pushed across the OK/AR state line this morning into the warm, juicy flow of air coming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.  There is more potential for such an event to unfold further east today.

The 12z sounding from Jackson, MS indicates a loaded gun type setup with quite the inversion around the 775mb level of the atmosphere.  This dry air aloft will likely aid in developing potential instability that could be unleashed if this cap breaks.  Given the incredible shear values…. it is likely that storms/showers will spin from the near the onset ahead of a massive mid level trough that will shoot northeast later in the period.

Our in-house mesoscale WRF model indicates that the capping should be broken shortly after noon with convection firing across most of Mississippi and potentially into west Alabama.  Shear values will be supportive of super cell structures with the potential for tornadoes.  This is a developing situation and one that we will possible deploy on for a chase within the next hour or so.  Stay tuned for more updates regarding this potential.

Storms are really going now and tornado watches are up to the Alabama state line from US-82 southward in Mississippi.  Several warnings just came out for the Jackson, MS warning area and these storms are increasing and intensifying.  This is expected to continue eastward late into the night and tomorrow across portions of our area.  One confirmed tornado in Central Louisiana has destroyed well built brick homes near the Atlanta community.  This is a serious situation. 

We will be deploying as things get rocky in our vicinity later tonight or tomorrow morning.  You can monitor our live streaming video at the top of the page or on WBRC-TV FOX 6 once severe weather coverage picks up.  I’ll be with meteorologist James-Paul Dice and Wes Wyatt once continuous coverage begins.  More later…

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather for areas just to our southwest on Monday as a strong surface and upper level system will approach our area.  The risk of damaging winds and tornadoes are involved with this system.  For our area….we are continuing to monitor the progression of instability and the higher dewpoints on the numerical model guidance.  This will be critical in determining where and when/if any severe weather will occur.

The NAM (short range model) and GFS/ECMWF all have different timing.  The GFS is the fastest with the system with the NAM being the slower, more unstable model.  This model gives us our best shot at severe weather with a slower cold frontal passage.  This allows the moisture to surge further north on the model.

Timing will be key in all of this, but at this time areas south of I-20 stand the best chance at getting into the severe stuff on late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  More later with specifics on the potential threat.

The next cold front is going to be coming into the middle of the country by Monday as a powerful upper air system gets going to the west.  A wedge frontal boundary is going to play havoc over portions of east Alabama as a high pressure system in the north east intensifies pushing drier air in from the northeast…..as a low pressure system begins to wrap up in the central plains.  This will be a true clash of the air masses. 

In the end, the moist air will begin to win the battle as the cold front approaches later Monday night into Tuesday and heavy rain and some strong storms will be possible.  I’m not sold on severe weather at this time due to limited instability.  However, if we can get at least marginally unstable….the wind dynamics will provide plenty of shear for severe storms to form *if* unstable air can make it into the area.

Continue to monitor us for further details on the potential for some severe weather as we approach the Monday night/Tuesday time frame.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather across eastern portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, central and southern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.  Conditions are expected to become favorable for the formation of some tornadoes across the region this afternoon with a 10% risk of tornadoes across portions of the area pictured above. 

Current surface analysis shows an intensifying 1000mb surface cyclone across portions of northern Kansas with a dewpoint surge occurring out ahead of a sharpening dryline/cold front.  This front will bring a major temperature contrast to the region as well as the southeast in coming days.  As better upper level winds move into the area later today….thunderstorms are expected to form and some may spin causing isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.  The mid levels are rather moist today, so visibility will be limited and instability may be hampered a bit.  However, there is still plenty of potential with a moist low level environment as well as shear ahead of the cold front. 

There will be numerous chasers in the field today from ChaserTV and Severe Studios.  We will monitor the situation as we approach game time this afternoon.  More later.

Advisories on Tropical Storm Paula will be soon initiated by the NHC.  Air Force RECON is finding stronger winds by the minute from the flight.  This is a rapidly developing storm system and could cause some problems down the road.  We will wait on the models to initialize later and go from there in terms of where this thing may head.

The latest from the NHC was very interesting on 97L….

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES HAVE CHANGED
LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY.  HOWEVER...AIRCRAFT DATA
FROM A RESEARCH MISSION BEING CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL CENTER FOR
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH...AS WELL AS SATELLITE DATA...SUGGEST THAT
THIS SYSTEM IS ALREADY PRODUCING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN A
SMALL AREA NORTH OF THE CENTER.  ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION OF THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD RESULT
IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL STORM...AND ADVISORIES COULD BE
INITIATED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.  THERE IS A HIGH
CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT ABOUT 20
MPH.

Earl is getting ready to pound the islands as he continues to intensify pretty rapidly this evening and has become a category two hurricane.  Hurricane warnings are in effect and hurricane conditions are expected for the islands over the next 12-24 hours.  Earl is now expected to become a dangerous hurricane while passing near the islands so please take the warnings seriously. 

97L is still showing a decent spin and we are looking for a n increase in convective development overtop the system this evening.  If this happens to occur….we could be dealing with a tropical depression on Monday and possibly tropical storm Fiona soon after/