SPC Day 3 Outlook

In addition, a 30% hatched risk area has already been put in place by the SPC, which includes portions of Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, and Georgia. Stay connected to the Alabama Storm Trackers for the latest details on this system and contact Brett at brett@livestormsnow.com for chase information.

A tornado watch is now in effect for portions of Oklahoma and Texas until 8pm Central time this evening.  Looks as if the main threats from these storms will be wind and hail, but an isolated tornado will be possible as low level shear increases this afternoon into the evening hours.  We will continue to monitor the threats and will update you if any of our teams end up hitting the field in this region.

Here is the modeled reflectivity for around 9am tomorrow morning.  You can see a pretty intense shield of precipitation across TN/N MS and N AL.  This area will most likely be in the form of snow as an upper level low pressure area moves across the region.  Very cold temperatures aloft will likely allow this precip to stay in the form of snow through most of the day light hours underneath the low. 

Here is the accumulated snowfall through 9am tomorrow.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is showing some 2-3” totals along the AR/TN/MS border area with more snow still falling at a moderate pace.  You can see the model is showing accumulations sneaking into the picture across North Mississippi and Northwest Alabama during the same time frame.  The snow should just be entering NW sections of Alabama by this time.  We will monitor the trends and progression of this.

We will likely be deploying in the early AM hours for North Alabama to stream somewhere near Monte Sano during the snow event.  This event could drop some couple of inches on the higher elevations across Tennessee and maybe North Alabama.  This will be a situation you will want to pay attention to.  Click the Brett Adair and Eric Parker tab on LiveStormsNOW.com for live video during the event tomorrow.

This is the latest output from the SPC RUC model.  0-1km EHI values are in the 4-6 range across much of Arkansas, North Mississippi and Alabama this evening.  Effective shear values of 500 m*2/s*2 also suggest very strong turning of the winds in the lower levels and could set off a few tornadoes later this evening into tonight.  At the surface….a meso-low of 1004mb may be forming in SW Arkansas by looking at the mass fields.  I would keep the weather radio on in West Alabama tonight just in case some storms do break out ahead of the front and get active.  Don’t be surprised to see some severe storms tomorrow as well with the front hanging around.  Wind/Hail are the main threats, but a tornado could happen too. 

We will watch the situation and post up more information if needed.  We may even chase locally if something breaks early in the morning hours tomorrow.

We will have a full radar summary and video log of our tornado outbreak on last Friday, April 15th online very soon!  Stay tuned.

Brett

LI values in the –3 to –7 range (higher values to the SW) will support a threat of damaging winds with the increased forcing moving in from the west.  Low level shear values will also support updrafts that will keep the line charged across the state, but directional shear will be nearly non-existant.  We will have to watch for kinks in the line for minor spin ups, but the possibility is near zero.

This NAM reflectivity product does just what we think and suggests a line of showers and storms will move through the Birmingham metro during the late afternoon and push through the area during the evening.  Damaging winds up to 65 mph, small hail, and a VERY slim chance at a brief tornado touchdown are possible.  Main threats will be from the wind, lightning, and heavy rainfall.

We have posted up a slight risk of chasing if something does happen to pop and get significant…..especially ahead of the line but we don’t expect much.  Stay tuned for later updates if the situation deserves a closer look.

Some of the latest data is indicating the potential for some supercells capable of producing tornadoes….in particular the 18z GFS and the 12z WRF.  Here is a shot of the reflectivity for 20z tomorrow from the 12z WRF.

This model indicates some isolated development just west of Tupelo which moves towards the NE quickly as the line to the west intensifies.  We think this is a likely scenario where a few rogue cells are able to fire ahead of the line before the winds veer too much and surface convergence is killed before the line plows full.  We expect some pretty significant winds as well with the line which could cause sporadic major damage.  The line won’t be something to take lightly. 

The GFS shows extreme divergence fields over portions of MS/AL by the afternoon and temperatures jumping into the 80°s.  Instability values will be moderate to strong and this will help create a volatile environment.  

LIVE STREAMING VIDEO: CLICK HERE!

The live video will be available via the link above at StormScapeLIVE.com.  We will be streaming beginning around 7am as we move toward the target zone.  As of now, we have one tourist along for the ride tomorrow and have one slot open.  If interested….contact us on our facebook page HERE!

Continue to monitor our twitter feed on the side of the page and our fan page updates when on the road tomorrow.  We will pop in and out of our chat room on the right side of our video stream to chat with you guys as time permits.  See you tomorrow.

The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of the deep south on Monday and Tuesday for the potential for a significant severe weather threat including hail, high winds, and the potential for some strong tornadoes.  This looks to be the greatest severe threat of the year as we move onward into spring with April marching right in and on cue.  There have been some timing differences, but currently the greatest threat and time for severe weather looks to come between 6pm Monday and 6am on Tuesday.  This has the potential to be a dangerous event.  We will continue to monitor and update later on as conditions warrant. 

This is the latest Day 2 outlook from the SPC in terms of the highest threat of severe weather on Monday.  There is a slight risk in tact for the northern 2/3rd’s of Alabama as well as northeast Mississippi and north Georgia.  The parameters are there for some isolated super cell convection along with the threat of tornadoes.  The tornadic threat will be prevalent with any cells that can form ahead of the line as well as cells embedded within the line.  Shear will weaken with time, but moisture is already outdoing the forecast and can overcome the shear values at times.  We will be updating with our chase target mapping for Monday morning when we plan to deploy as well as updating with our own risk graphics.  However, the SPC does mention the potential for higher probabilities and maybe significant probabilities in later outlooks as the features become more clear. 

Stay with us as we prepare for our first real chase of the 2011 storm season. 

I have a feeling this time tomorrow evening I will probably be sick for not making the trip out to Arkansas, but this is our tornado target product for tomorrow.  This is where we believe the highest potential for a strong, long tracked tornado may be during the afternoon and evening hours across portions of AR/LA/W MS/W TN.  There is definitely some parameters that are coming together for this to be a pretty damaging event.  If something changes and we hit the road, we will let you know first.