Archive for December, 2011

Rainfall is ongoing across portions of Alabama along the state line at this hour, but the rainfall is expected to pick up this afternoon.  Another wave of energy in the upper air will swing in and cause more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area through the early part of the day tomorrow.   Some river flooding could become a problem across western sections of the area.  Temperatures across the northern 2/3 of Alabama will remain too stable for any kind of severe activity….but things along the Gulf Coast could crank up later as the shortwave moves closer. 

The SPC upgraded a portion of the outlook area along the Gulf Coast to a slight risk around 10am this morning for the overnight hours tonight.  Shear will increase ahead of a mid level wave….as will some weak instability which could lead to a few damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes.  The risk runs roughly from Mobile to Dothan and southward. 

We will likely release a full summary on the December 22nd QLCS/low topped supercell tornado event in the coming days as we get video and pictures together of the happenings of that day.  Look for it in future postings. 

The SPC has a slight risk out for parts of Texas tommorow. Supercell development is possible, but the main threat still appears to be straight-line winds.

The Alabama Storm Trackers and the LiveStormsNOW.com crew were on the road today in search of snowfall across North Alabama.  We found it on Monte Sano as the upper level low swung across.  Snowfall was very isolated, but we did encounter some heavier bursts.  Around 1” of snow did accumulate before all melting once it ended.  Brett Adair, David Ruffini, and Tommy Self were in attendance for the events.

Looking into the potential for another deep south snow threat beginning tonight and going into the daytime tomorrow.  After going over one of our higher resolution and more reliable short term models this evening….it certainly looks like we will see some flakes flying.  Let’s get into it…

Here is the modeled reflectivity for around 9am tomorrow morning.  You can see a pretty intense shield of precipitation across TN/N MS and N AL.  This area will most likely be in the form of snow as an upper level low pressure area moves across the region.  Very cold temperatures aloft will likely allow this precip to stay in the form of snow through most of the day light hours underneath the low. 

Here is the accumulated snowfall through 9am tomorrow.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is showing some 2-3” totals along the AR/TN/MS border area with more snow still falling at a moderate pace.  You can see the model is showing accumulations sneaking into the picture across North Mississippi and Northwest Alabama during the same time frame.  The snow should just be entering NW sections of Alabama by this time.  We will monitor the trends and progression of this.

We will likely be deploying in the early AM hours for North Alabama to stream somewhere near Monte Sano during the snow event.  This event could drop some couple of inches on the higher elevations across Tennessee and maybe North Alabama.  This will be a situation you will want to pay attention to.  Click the Brett Adair and Eric Parker tab on LiveStormsNOW.com for live video during the event tomorrow.