Archive for November, 2011

We are now monitoring after some run to run consistency from the forecast models over the last few days of some snow potential for portions of North Alabama on Monday and into Tuesday with a powerful upper level low pressure area that is projected to move across the region.  The morning run of the GFS still pains some accumulating snowfall for places across North Alabama…such as the Shoals area….of nearly 3-5”.  Again, this is accumulating snowfall and not necessarily what falls.  Therefore, I feel that we may get a heavier band of snow across sections of N MS, AL and TN during this period.  More later on…

Brett Adair and the Alabama Storm Trackers wil be in the field on Tuesday. Their is a very significant severe weather threat on Tuesday, including strong straight line winds, hail and tornadoes. The best chance for severe weather will be in Central and East Mississippi and West and Cental Alabama. Contact Brett Adair at brett@livestormsnow.com for more information on how you can be part of the chase!

Chase Prices are an estimate, and are not reflective of every chase. Contact Brett for each chase price.

***CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGERY***

Increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front can be blamed on returning moisture across the area.  Temperatures are in the 60’s with some areas approaching 70 mainly across the south. 

Radar shows our showers moving northward and eastward from the Clanton/Prattville/Montgomery areas as moisture continues to advance into the area.  Dewpoints are into the mid 50’s at this point and should continue to climb over the next couple of days. 

We are monitoring a cold front that is currently coming out of the Kansas area that will bring some welcome rainfall to the area by mid week.  There is also the potential for members of the Alabama Storm Trackers to deploy to Texas for impending severe weather.  Wee will keep you informed.

Brett Adair and the Alabama Storm Trackers may be going on a chase in Arkansas on Tuesday. Contact Brett Adair for more information if interested at brett@livestormsnow.com.

Well….it looks like we are getting toward that time of the year folks where severe storms of the convective and winter variety will roam the US.  This weekend is no different.  Global models are indicating a strong trough ejecting out of the Rockies and moving across the central/northern plain states while beginning to take a negative tilt.  As of late, GFS trends indicate that instability values on the warm side of this system will be rather low due to limited moisture except along the far southern end of the front in parts of Texas.  It looks like some isolated severe storms could be possible mainly with wind being the problem in the form of downbursts along the front since the higher wind shear values will remain well north of the region.  Even though limited instability is present…we could see a cold core setup for some funnel/weak tornado formation further north across NE KS/MO/SE NE where the colder upper level setup will be in place along wiith high wind shear values.  Instability could be maximized in this region given the cold temps aloft so this is a situation we will need to closely monitor.  Elsewhere along the frontal boundary…a line of low topped showers/convection will be likely along the boundary itself.  Don’t expect a ton of severe weather unless instability values increase.  However, as we all know it doesn’t take much this time of the year so we will watch it.

Further north….in the cold sector of the storm a pretty hefty winter event will be in store for portions of the Dakotas, northern Nebraska, and Minnesota. Snowfall amounts in excess of 4″ will be likely just NW of the surface low track that is expected to move from the KC metro toward portions of SE Minnesota. There will be significant snows in portions of the region, but we will conintue to monitor the situation before putting out some kind of map on this.  

There is some potential that we could have chasers in the field if this ends up being more severe than we expect.  Check back for frequent updates as we monitor the situation.