Archive for September 28th, 2011

   SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS
   STORMS DEVELOP/INTENSIFY WITH TIME.  EVENTUAL WW ISSUANCE IS
   POSSIBLE.
  
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW CONVECTION SLOWLY
   DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA…BOTH INVOF A SEA BREEZE
   BOUNDARY NEAR THE SERN TX/SRN LA COAST AND ALSO FARTHER N INTO SRN
   MS NEAR THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE FRONT.  THE CONVECTION IS INITIATING
   WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FEATURING VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
   THROUGH A DEEP LAYER…AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.  THIS
   COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MIXED-LAYER CAPE VALUES
   NOW AS HIGH AS 3500 J/KG FROM SERN TX EWD ACROSS SRN LA.
  
   AS HEATING/DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES…AND AS A COMPACT UPPER
   LOW/VORT MAX SHIFTS SEWD OUT OF OK INTO THE ARKLATEX
   REGION…LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA…SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN BOTH STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY.
   WHILE PROFILER/VWP DATA AND MORNING RAOBS REVEAL MODEST FLOW ALOFT
   — AND THUS SHEAR VALUES GENERALLY UNSUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS…DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEARS SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME
   THIS LIMITATION AND YIELD AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  WHILE WW IS NOT
   IMMINENT…INCREASING POTENTIAL MAY EVENTUALLY WARRANT WATCH
   ISSUANCE.
  
   ..GOSS.. 09/28/2011
  
  
   ATTN…WFO…MOB…JAN…LIX…LCH…SHV…HGX…