Archive for March, 2011

Nasty storm around Fulton, AL: loaded with lightning and some hail it looks like.  This cell is moving off to the east at a good clip. 

…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CST
FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILCOX AND NORTHEASTERN CLARKE COUNTIES…

AT 955 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE
A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS
OVER 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 9 MILES
WEST OF THOMASVILLE TO JACKSON…MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
  GLOVER…BASHI…UNION AND SPRINGFIELD AROUND 1000 PM CST…
  ASBURY…WHATELY…WHATLEY AND THOMASVILLE AROUND 1005 PM CST…
  FINLEY CROSSING AND ATKEISON AROUND 1010 PM CST…

Heavy rains are beginning to spread northeastward across portions of Central Alabama with the heaviest over southwestern sections of our viewing area in the Sumter, Greene, Perry, Hale, Pickens, and Dallas County areas.  Some areas of localized flooding have already been reported with the rainfall during the afternoon with earlier storms due to swollen creeks and streams from the last widespread rain event a few days ago.

Rain is expected to spread and intensify across the entire area with some of the rainfall being convective in nature.  Most of the region will see a good 2”+ rainfall event from this with more coming tomorrow.  Flash flood watches are already in effect and warnings are quite possible if this event becomes prolonged.  Rainfall will be moderate to heavy for most areas during the night tonight.

There could be a break in the action ahead of the cold front tomorrow before more showers and storms impact the area.  This will be key in terms of how much instability develops across the area and we will be monitoring this frontal progression throughout the night time hours.  CAPE values are climbing to our south in a hurry just south of the front…..on the order of 2000 joules of MLCAPE.  If these kind of values end up progressive into Alabama….we will have a definite severe storm and tornado threat.  We will keep you updated…

BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
823 PM CST TUE MAR 8 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOBILE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR…
  EASTERN GREENE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF LEAKESVILLE…
  SOUTHEASTERN WAYNE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI…
  WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST ALABAMA…
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CHATOM…

* UNTIL 900 PM CST

* AT 822 PM CST…NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL…AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THESE STORMS WERE
  LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF CHATOM TO
  LEAKESVILLE…AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.  THE GREENE COUNTY
  MISSISSIPPI EMERGENCY MANAGER RECEIVED A REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE
  HAIL WITH THIS STORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AVERA MISSISSIPPI.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR…
  CHATOM AROUND 840 PM CST…
  SAINT STEPHRNS AND SAINT STEPHENS AROUND 855 PM CST…
  CORTELUOU AND MCINTOSH AROUND 900 PM CST…

Portions of SW Alabama have been placed under a tornado watch until 3AM CST.  This watch only includes far western border counties this evening.  Thunderstorms are erupting along the front and ahead of it from the Shreveport, LA area eastward.  This is expected to continue overnight and the threat of tornadic action is expected to increase with time. 

A very heavy rain mass is moving across portions of Mississippi and Alabama this evening and will likely cause some localized flooding troubles throughout the evening.  We are watching the warm front closely to the south and will likely be chasing if things become unstable across south-central portions of our area by morning.  We will be updating throughout the night time hours as conditions warrant.  Go over your tornado plan if you are in the watch area. 

Storms are increasing this afternoon on the warm conveyor belt aloft north of the warm front.  This is causing some storms to develop with some hail in the strongest updrafts.  These storms don’t have the potential to become tornadic due to no low level instability.  These cells are all elevated in nature.  Heavy rainfall could become a problem by later tonight and a Flash Flood Watch has been placed for much of the area. 

we continue to watch the potential for some severe storms on tomorrow as the slight risk has been nudged northward again toward the Montgomery area.  Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes look to be the main threats due to the moist environment ahead of the system and high low level shear values.  Heavy rainfall could be the biggest threat of everything with this system.  We will continue to monitor it.

Looking at our radar here….we have highlighted a cell that has been tornado warned for the last little big that has had some rotation and potential for producing tornadoes.  funnel clouds have been reported and we have been watching this thing for a little while now.  Some tree and line damage has been reported around the Raleigh area this afternoon.  Nothing as serious as the damage and injuries from yesterdays convection in Louisiana. 

Our next potential weather maker will get going Tuesday into Wednesday around here.  Looks like another minimal risk of severe storms, but the heavy rain threat looks to be pretty significant.  We will continue to watch and post more on our chances as we approach the Wednesday time frame.

Here is radar of the tornado rated EF-0 near Crowley, LA where some structures were damaged.  This tornado was very weak and short lived but did produce about 3 injuries.

This shot is the second and stronger tornado that occurred in Rayne, LA on the NW side of town.  Estimates are that 60 homes have been completely destroyed and at least 50 injuries have been observed with some serious.  One person has been confirmed dead with unconfirmed reports of more.  Gas leaks have been reported and officials have been unable to get into some of the damaged areas due to debris and the threat of gas leaking.  Much of Rayne has been evacuated due to these threats.  This was one serious beat on radar a little earlier this morning. 

Thankfully, we won’t deal with anything like this across Alabama today.  Most of the rainfall will be out of here by late tonight and the front will move through North and Central Alabama calmly.  A tornado watch is in effect along the AL/FL Gulf Coast until 10PM this evening for the threat of an isolated tornado down that way.  Instability is much less than it was in Louisiana earlier….so the threat of major tornadoes has greatly diminished.

Looks like we will get started fairly fast this weekend with showers and storms already taking place across a good portion of the lower Mississippi Valley this evening.  Tomorrow….some localized areas of flooding are possible ahead of the cold frontal boundary as pockets of heavy rainfall setup during the day.  Some isolated severe weather will be possible in areas where instability values can creep up, but a good chunk of Alabama will deal with easterly winds of the wedge boundary which will keep temperatures cooler east of I-65 and instability in check.  The best chance of any severe storms will be to the west and south over portions of coastal Mississippi, Louisiana, and Alabama where some marine air could spark some severe weather. 

Model output does indicate some areas receiving over 3” of rainfall north of I-20/59 during the overnight tonight and day tomorrow.  With the drought stricken conditions across a good portion of the area, flooding will not be a widespread problem unless some 5”+ totals are reached in a 12 hour period.  This does not look likely, but we will definitely watch the trends and training of cells within the rain shield.

We are beginning to worry a little more about Wednesday as a very dynamic system will take shape to our west and put is back in the warm sector yet again as a cold front heads our way.   There are questions regarding the timing and moisture quality that returns ahead of the system.   If things continue to trend toward more return flow….we will likely be dealing with a tornadic type event.  Stay tuned as we will be updating the chase status during the next couple of days to reflect on this.  Enjoy your wet start to the weekend with a movie and some relaxation like I am.

Rain and storms are going across portions of Mississippi and Louisiana this hour and are beginning to enter western Alabama.  With weak instability, low dew points, and no extreme wind shear or dynamics….we aren’t expecting severe weather.  However, this looks to be a substantial rain event.  I will be creating some graphics to identify our drought stricken areas and the area that may get excessive rainfall this weekend with our approaching storm system.  Also, the potential for a higher impact severe weather event on next week.  More later…

On Monday 2/28/11 we departed our central Alabama location at 3am en route to North Alabama for what looked to be a good chase day.  Early on we were cranking up the tunes while driving north bound and entertaining our guests on our StormScapeLIVE stream.  By 5am we were in the Decatur area and decided to exit off and have a good bite to eat with John Brown and Mike Wilhelm at the local Waffle House.  After grabbing a bite to eat we noticed that cells began going up right behind a gravity wave that was traversing north Mississippi and decided to fuel up and head NW. 

We progressed toward the Florence vicinity and noticed a distinct NE component to the storms.  Once we passed Waterloo, AL we observed lighting and some light rain but no real evidence of severe weather.  Thus, we backed off and went back into Florence and waited for later action.  After watching another storm weaken and go to our north from there we decided to head back to the interstate and make a play on later storms that were scheduled to form.  Just before noon storms began going to severe in Western Lauderdale and Colbert County.  We strategized and decided to go northward toward Athens and take the exit and drive in the direction of Rogersville just across the river and into Lauderdale county.  We noticed some evidence of rotation along Us-72 and took SR-207 northward to follow the developing storm.  Once we made it to Anderson the storm accelerated to our east and we were unable to really catch it.   After taking SR-99 eastward back towards Athens….we pulled over in the Cartwright community as we heard some kind of a roar with the cell departing to our ENE.  Inflow winds were picking up into the cell as it really ramped up in forward speed and entered Limestone County.  This storm went on to produce a tornado near the state line north of Hazel Green just east of HWY-231. 

After being bummed about missing a tornadic producing cell….we went back to I-65 to catch up with cells that were beginning to fire to the SW along the pre-frontal convergence.  After getting back on I-65 southward we noted that the cells were beginning to develop a little rotation even with the mainly veered low level winds at the surface.  We punched through a cell that had probably 5”/hour rainfall rates and got into position as a “kidney bean” shaped cell approached us at the rest area just south of Good Hope in Cullman County.  Once we got into position and at an elevated location we witnessed this at the beginning of the video.

This funnel was pretty consolidated for a few moments and actually extended probably 1/2 or 3/4 of the way to the ground at times.  Some folks on our stream thought they witnessed a touch down, but we can’t find any video evidence that would suggest that at all.  This was really the best cell that we caught on this day.

After intercepting the Cullman cell….we tracked south to the I-20/59 interchange and headed west.  This was a bad move on our part and put us too far north to get into the significant wind/hail that impacted parts of the Birmingham metro.  We got off at US-78 which mainly received heavy rain from the cell.

We sat there for a few moments in traffic gridlock and finally made it back to I-65 south bound heading toward the cells in Jefferson/Shelby.  We finally came out of the embedded rainfall while listening to all of the traffic on the 146.88 repeater out of Birmingham.  The reports of golf ball to tennis ball sized hail were pouring in and we figured that we may get lucky and get some rotation in the updraft base on the south side.  Once we got out of the core, we saw some rotation around the Shelby County airport.  We figured it was our last play of the day and decided to take the HWY-25 exit toward Columbiana/Wilsonville.  We saw a disorganized wall cloud a few times along the way with some higher base rotation, but the main show was further east with the Harpersville cell as a tornado warning was issued with damage being reported. 

We were unable to catch the cell, so we followed the rotational path of the cell that impacted Shelby/Talladega county and found the tornado damage located at the end of our video above.  The damage as all mainly minor, but looked like this on radar.

With veering winds throughout the event, you can’t ask for a much better day.  Instability was able to get storms fueled as the cap broke and the convergence kept them coming through the afternoon.  Had the winds stayed back…. a high end tornado outbreak would have unfolded.  Keep in mind that this is early spring and we still have a ways to go.