Archive for December 31st, 2010

Supercells are now becoming a problem in the Jackson forecast area.  These two tornado warned storms are just southwest of Jackson.  Nothing has been reported on the ground with damage at this moment, but these cells are exhibiting strong rotation. 

Tornado watches are in effect for virtually the entire state of Mississippi throughout the evening into the overnight.  Stay aware of the weather situation as this activity could spread into west Alabama…..especially west of I-65 during the overnight hours.  More to come…

I don’t like to hear of fatalities when I get up in the morning…..and we already have three in the small community of Cincinnati in Washington County, AR from and early morning tornado that has destroyed at least one brick home and several structures.  Tornado watches and warnings continue to be in effect for portions of Northern Arkansas and Southern Missouri at this hour.

These storms intensified rapidly as they pushed across the OK/AR state line this morning into the warm, juicy flow of air coming northward out of the Gulf of Mexico.  There is more potential for such an event to unfold further east today.

The 12z sounding from Jackson, MS indicates a loaded gun type setup with quite the inversion around the 775mb level of the atmosphere.  This dry air aloft will likely aid in developing potential instability that could be unleashed if this cap breaks.  Given the incredible shear values…. it is likely that storms/showers will spin from the near the onset ahead of a massive mid level trough that will shoot northeast later in the period.

Our in-house mesoscale WRF model indicates that the capping should be broken shortly after noon with convection firing across most of Mississippi and potentially into west Alabama.  Shear values will be supportive of super cell structures with the potential for tornadoes.  This is a developing situation and one that we will possible deploy on for a chase within the next hour or so.  Stay tuned for more updates regarding this potential.