Archive for November, 2010

Storms are really going now and tornado watches are up to the Alabama state line from US-82 southward in Mississippi.  Several warnings just came out for the Jackson, MS warning area and these storms are increasing and intensifying.  This is expected to continue eastward late into the night and tomorrow across portions of our area.  One confirmed tornado in Central Louisiana has destroyed well built brick homes near the Atlanta community.  This is a serious situation. 

We will be deploying as things get rocky in our vicinity later tonight or tomorrow morning.  You can monitor our live streaming video at the top of the page or on WBRC-TV FOX 6 once severe weather coverage picks up.  I’ll be with meteorologist James-Paul Dice and Wes Wyatt once continuous coverage begins.  More later…

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather for areas just to our southwest on Monday as a strong surface and upper level system will approach our area.  The risk of damaging winds and tornadoes are involved with this system.  For our area….we are continuing to monitor the progression of instability and the higher dewpoints on the numerical model guidance.  This will be critical in determining where and when/if any severe weather will occur.

The NAM (short range model) and GFS/ECMWF all have different timing.  The GFS is the fastest with the system with the NAM being the slower, more unstable model.  This model gives us our best shot at severe weather with a slower cold frontal passage.  This allows the moisture to surge further north on the model.

Timing will be key in all of this, but at this time areas south of I-20 stand the best chance at getting into the severe stuff on late Monday night and Tuesday morning.  More later with specifics on the potential threat.

Some parts of Central Alabama are below freezing this evening already as of the 10:15PM hour.  Looks like the normally colder valley regions could get down into the upper 20’s this evening, but the dewpoints are pretty high so I don’t think there is much more room for the temperatures to fall.  Winds are variable, but we will begin to get into a northeast flow of drier air across eastern sections with a more southerly flow along the western border counties by  Monday. 

The next cold front is going to be coming into the middle of the country by Monday as a powerful upper air system gets going to the west.  A wedge frontal boundary is going to play havoc over portions of east Alabama as a high pressure system in the north east intensifies pushing drier air in from the northeast…..as a low pressure system begins to wrap up in the central plains.  This will be a true clash of the air masses. 

In the end, the moist air will begin to win the battle as the cold front approaches later Monday night into Tuesday and heavy rain and some strong storms will be possible.  I’m not sold on severe weather at this time due to limited instability.  However, if we can get at least marginally unstable….the wind dynamics will provide plenty of shear for severe storms to form *if* unstable air can make it into the area.

Continue to monitor us for further details on the potential for some severe weather as we approach the Monday night/Tuesday time frame.

The Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma has issued a slight risk of severe weather across eastern portions of Oklahoma, southeast Kansas, central and southern Missouri, and northwestern Arkansas.  Conditions are expected to become favorable for the formation of some tornadoes across the region this afternoon with a 10% risk of tornadoes across portions of the area pictured above. 

Current surface analysis shows an intensifying 1000mb surface cyclone across portions of northern Kansas with a dewpoint surge occurring out ahead of a sharpening dryline/cold front.  This front will bring a major temperature contrast to the region as well as the southeast in coming days.  As better upper level winds move into the area later today….thunderstorms are expected to form and some may spin causing isolated tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail.  The mid levels are rather moist today, so visibility will be limited and instability may be hampered a bit.  However, there is still plenty of potential with a moist low level environment as well as shear ahead of the cold front. 

There will be numerous chasers in the field today from ChaserTV and Severe Studios.  We will monitor the situation as we approach game time this afternoon.  More later.

A lot of dense fog in the area tonight.  I took these photos as I was leaving work in Sylacauga this evening.  Be careful if you must be on the roads tonight.  Visibility is limited!

With the front hung up around the Birmingham area…..the temperatures should hang around the 50 degree mark across the metro.  Higher readings south of I-20 and some much cooler readings near the TN/AL state line.  More warming is expected tomorrow.

The rain is beginning to slack off for much of the area.  Tuscaloosa, Birmingham, Anniston and points north and west will remain rain free this evening.  Some heavy rain continues on the northwest side of the I-85 corridor from Montgomery to Alexander City.  This rain should slowly begin to fade with the loss of daytime heating and upper level support continuing to move away.   The frontal boundary itself is stalling out around the Birmingham area and will move back northward as a warm front as a new developing surface system takes shape over Oklahoma and Kansas tomorrow.

A decent arctic front will begin to drop in by turkey day and give us more wet weather into the Black Friday shopping event.  Temperatures will cool during the afternoon on Friday and remain rather chilly for the Iron Bowl at Bryant-Denny in Tuscaloosa.  Just FYI….this won’t effect the Auburn Tigers and their road to the BCS National Championship.   

Things get more interesting as we head into December, but we will wait on that fairy tale until we get closer.  Have a good work week folks.

This afternoon an isolated thunderstorm or shower formed ahead of the cold front moving through the Jackson, MS forecast area and developed some pretty tight rotation.  This cell has apparently done some damage in parts of Simpson County due to a possible tornado.  Here is a glimpse of the cell as it moved off to the east with the damage markers indicated.  It did look rather stout after passing through.

This is video from our hail storm that smacked us on Cooridor-X in Walker County near the Jefferson County line.