Archive for August, 2010

On the way to Destin this evening….we came across some localized flooding in Wetumpka.  Then we were treated with the following mammatus clouds on I-65 south in western Montgomery County.

Our Gulf low this afternoon is still trying to gain some organization, but it seems some northeasterly dry air and potentially some shear is hampering thunderstorm devleopment on the north and east side of the low level center of circulation.  This may be a limiting factor of development over the next day or so as this system moves westward now.  It won’t spend much time over water and should make landfall along coastal Louisiana by Wednesday.  The NHC gives it a 60% chance of development before making landfall……we believe that there is a 50/50 shot.  It is unlikely that we will pursue this system given its lack of organization.  We will save our dime for something better to come down the road…..hopefully. 

Yesterday this thing was centered over Alexander City, AL; however it is now back on track for a date with the Gulf of Mexico once again.  Ex-TD #5 could become a TD and even a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours as it continues southward and re-emerges back over the open, warm waters.  Currently, the low level center is located near Dothan, Alabama with plenty of convection on the SW side of it.  Isolated thunderstorms are developing around the main circulation…..mainly due to daytime heating processes.  This is expected to continue through the afternoon and evening hours as it moves south.

Over the next day the sytsem  is expected to continue to oraganize and intensify potentially into a tropical cyclone.  The National Hurricane Center has already scheduled a RECON visit to this system during the day tomorrow….and many more if development does indeed occur. 

The main influence of the system continues to be the upper level ridge to the north over the Midwest and Tennessee Valley regions.  This will also give the low a favorable upper level environment for strengthening.  The determining factor will be how long this area of low presure is able to stay over the open waters. Remember….the waters in the northern Gulf are fairly shallow but they are hot.  The further south this thing is able to go….the higher probability it will have to become a substantial storm because of the deeper content of warm water.

Current expectations are for this system to become a moderate tropical storm with winds of 50-60 mph before making landfall once again along the coast of Louisiana.  Details still remain sketchy at this point due to some variation in guidance, but things will become more clear over the next day as we see how much the low can organize.  There is a slim possibility that this could become stronger than forecast and make a run at hurricane status depending on it’s life span over water.  As with most tropical cyclones….expect the unexpected as intensity forecasts are very low confidence.

There is a possibility that we could be making a run toward the Gulf Coast for this system if it looks to have a greater impact than we currently expect.  Stay tuned for further updates as our plans change and this system organizes.

Tropical Depression #5 of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed in the Central Gulf of Mexico. Current forecast tracks take the system somewhere between Caillou Bay, Louisiana, and Pensacola, Florida. Intensity forecasts are still spread thin, but as of now, the official forecast calls for a minimal tropical storm. The system shouldn’t have much time to organize further before making landfall sometime tomorrow.

There is a slight chance that the system could “double-back” and re-enter the Gulf somewhere around Destin over the course of the next few days. Stay tuned for further updates on this potential situation. Should conditions warrant, the Alabama Storm Trackers will possibly be in the field for this system.

On a sad note, the rest of the members of the organization extend our deepest sympathies to the Adair Family. Brett’s wife lost her sister over the weekend at a very young age. Our thoughts and prayers are with their family during this awful time.

~Brandon

An Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for all of the Birmingham county warning area this afternoon.  This has been upgraded from a heat advisory.  Widespread head indexes of 110° are expected this afternoon and will make dangerous outdoor conditions for all age groups if exposed for long periods of time.  At this time…..heat index values across the area are 105+ at most locations.  Some strong storms have also developed and are adding some slight relief to the heat.

That value of 126° in NW Mississippi is EXTREME.  We can expect numbers like that around here for the next couple of days in the south before a little bit of relief is in store as temperatures may drop a little lower allowing for the HI values to back off just a bit…..but we will still likely deal with heat advisory criteria.  This is a dangerous heat wave. Make sure to check on the elderly numerous times over the next couple of days and stay indoors if at all possible.

Hot off the presses a new severe thunderstorm warning has been issued for Coosa and Tallapossa Counties until 3:45PM this afternoon.  Radar indicates damaging winds of 60+ MPH possible with the potential for wet microbursts within this storm.  Deadly lightning and extremely heavy rainfall will also occur under these storms around the Alexander City area.