Yesterday this thing was centered over Alexander City, AL; however it is now back on track for a date with the Gulf of Mexico once again.  Ex-TD #5 could become a TD and even a tropical storm over the next 24-48 hours as it continues southward and re-emerges back over the open, warm waters.  Currently, the low level center is located near Dothan, Alabama with plenty of convection on the SW side of it.  Isolated thunderstorms are developing around the main circulation…..mainly due to daytime heating processes.  This is expected to continue through the afternoon and evening hours as it moves south.

Over the next day the sytsem  is expected to continue to oraganize and intensify potentially into a tropical cyclone.  The National Hurricane Center has already scheduled a RECON visit to this system during the day tomorrow….and many more if development does indeed occur. 

The main influence of the system continues to be the upper level ridge to the north over the Midwest and Tennessee Valley regions.  This will also give the low a favorable upper level environment for strengthening.  The determining factor will be how long this area of low presure is able to stay over the open waters. Remember….the waters in the northern Gulf are fairly shallow but they are hot.  The further south this thing is able to go….the higher probability it will have to become a substantial storm because of the deeper content of warm water.

Current expectations are for this system to become a moderate tropical storm with winds of 50-60 mph before making landfall once again along the coast of Louisiana.  Details still remain sketchy at this point due to some variation in guidance, but things will become more clear over the next day as we see how much the low can organize.  There is a slim possibility that this could become stronger than forecast and make a run at hurricane status depending on it’s life span over water.  As with most tropical cyclones….expect the unexpected as intensity forecasts are very low confidence.

There is a possibility that we could be making a run toward the Gulf Coast for this system if it looks to have a greater impact than we currently expect.  Stay tuned for further updates as our plans change and this system organizes.