Archive for July, 2010

Invest 97L is looking good on satellite imagery today. Convection is firing to the East and Southeast of the cyclonic circulation. The latest models have this heading to South Florida with a northward turn after it enters the Gulf of Mexico and a final landfall in the Florida Panhandle. It is still VERY early in the game and these tracks CAN and WILL change, but this is something that needs to be paid attention to. High pressure to the north could keep the system on a more westward track.

NHC has a 30% chance of development on 97L

Spaghetti Chart of 97L Guidance

The Alabama Storm Trackers will likely provide footage LIVE from the field should this become a threat to the Gulf Coast.
~Brandon

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded most of Central and North Alabama to a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today, mainly along and north of a line from Phenix City to Montgomery to Centerville to Pickensville.

The main threat from these storms will be damaging wind gusts. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning cannot be ruled out either. If you must be outside today, stay close to a weather source, and act accordingly should you be caught in any of these storms.

Looks like some milder temperatures have arrived just in time for outdoor festivities regarding 4th of July celebrations area-wide. Expect temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area with lower humidity values. Areas to the south have some slight rain chances, but those showers will be hit-or-miss and shouldn’t put too much of a damper on any picnics, swimming, or boating. Remember, though, any storms that do form will have the capability of producing lightning. If you’re close enough to hear thunder, you’re close enough to be struck by lightning. Every one have a safe and enjoyable holiday weekend.

On to the tropics….

A weak area of low pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico is drifting westward along a stalled frontal boundary. The National Hurricane Center has placed a 20% chance of development on this feature. Upper level winds are currently inhibiting development, but these winds could relax somewhat over the next 24 hours. We don’t expect any significant problems from this feature at this time other than some breezy conditions and slightly enhanced riptides along the coast.

Happy 4th, everyone!

~Brandon

The clearing line is progressing southward slowly this morning…..a sign of lesser rain chances in our future.  The best chance of a shower today will lie south of I-20 with better chances of anything scattered south of I-85.  Most of that will be thanks to a stalled out boundary that is drifting southward and some indirect effects of ex-hurricane Alex that slammed into Mexico last evening.

This is an image of Alex shortly before landfall off of the Brownsville NEXRAD site.  The pressure bottomed out at 947mb with maximum ESTIMATED sustained winds of 105 mph.  I tend to believe that this actually may have been a major hurricane (category 3) at landfall with a pressure that low.  The post storm NHC investigation will hopefully prove that.  This is the second strongest June hurricane EVER in the Atlantic basin.