Archive for June 24th, 2010

Given the image above, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alex form over the next day or so.  The system is beginning to get a nice CDO (central dense overcast) overtop a mid level and potential low level circulation.  The thunderstorm flare-up is more condensed than the last couple of days and conditions are becoming more favorable for organized tropical development.  The system has been labeled Invest-93L.

The latest forecast model tracks are scary….given the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico along with the boiling hot water and weak shear forecast ahead of this developing system.  We don’t see this becoming a "major" US hit, but that can certainly change in a hurry given the potential conditions.  Track models are varying big time so I won’t go into specifics at this point on a potential forecast path, but we will get more into those possibilities later this weekend.