Archive for June, 2010

Alex looks to be strengthening this morning as visible satellite imagery shows deepening thunderstorm tops around the center of circulation.  A pressure drop to 959mb was indicated by Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft just before the 7am advisory this morning.  Alex currently has maximum sustained winds of 80mph and is moving NW @ 7mph as of the latest 10am CDT advisory.  This storm still has several hours over water and will affect portions of southern Texas even if the center makes landfall south of the border.  A Hurricane Warning is in effect from Baffin Bay, TX south to the mouth of the Rio Grande.  We expect Alex to strengthen to a category two hurricane later today.  Alex still has the potential to become a major hurricane before it makes landfall sometime late tonight or early tomorrow.

Given the image above, I wouldn’t be shocked to see Alex form over the next day or so.  The system is beginning to get a nice CDO (central dense overcast) overtop a mid level and potential low level circulation.  The thunderstorm flare-up is more condensed than the last couple of days and conditions are becoming more favorable for organized tropical development.  The system has been labeled Invest-93L.

The latest forecast model tracks are scary….given the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico along with the boiling hot water and weak shear forecast ahead of this developing system.  We don’t see this becoming a "major" US hit, but that can certainly change in a hurry given the potential conditions.  Track models are varying big time so I won’t go into specifics at this point on a potential forecast path, but we will get more into those possibilities later this weekend.

Another day full of twisters.  The Storm Prediction Center has a moderate risk of severe storms out for portions of the Central Plains today.  Tornado watches are already in effect with initiation taking place across WY, CO, NE, KS.  The particular storm above is the first to go tornado warned in Kansas today and already had a reported tornado by law enforcement in western Scott County, KS. 

Storm chasers are also in the field today and can be viewed on SevereStudios.com and ChaserTV.com.  We will bring you the images from the field as they are captured from some of the worlds best storm intercept teams.  If anything over the top happens, we will attempt to bring it to you first. 

On a side note….the 6/17/10 outbreak has produced at least 4 violent tornadoes across the states of North Dakota and Minnesota along with several other tornadoes.  The Grand Forks and Minneapolis NWS offices continue to investigate some areas and we will likely hear of more updates in the coming days.  Hated to see so many people lose thre homes and lives during that round of violent weather.  It’s that time of year for our neighbors to the north, however.  More later…

-Brett

A developing bow echo is moving across the area and is requiring the NWS in Birmingham to issue severe thunderstorm warnings for the entire area ahead of the line.  With our bow tracking overlay, you can see that this system will effect much of East-Central Alabama over the next hour as it begins to accelerate.  A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 8PM CDT this evening for the entire area.  There could be some additional development following this line.  Well keep you posted.

A weather watch is now looking possible for portions of Central Alabama this afternoon as the environment is becoming very unstable with afternoon heating and sunshine.  The SPC will upgrade portions of the area to a convective slight risk on the 1630z update….or around 11:30am.  We will monitor the situation and keep you updated on the sitaution….the SPC text and statement of the MCD follows…

 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MS...NRN AL...NWRN GA...ERN TN AND WRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 191530Z - 191630Z

   THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON
   WITH STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NRN MS THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL AL...NWRN
   GA...ERN TN AND WRN NC. THIS AREA IS BEING UPGRADED TO A SLIGHT
   RISK...AND A WW IS POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON CONVECTIVE TRENDS.

   AT MID-DAY AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
   THROUGH ERN KY AND ERN TN THEN WWD INTO NRN AL AND NRN MS. THE
   ATMOSPHERE SOUTH OF THIS FEATURE IS ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
   2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE. STRONG DIABATIC HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   WILL RESULT IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW ALOFT IS
   WEAK WNWLY ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
   PROPENSITY FOR STORMS TO ORGANIZE INTO MULTICELL LINES ALONG THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...A SLIGHTLY GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STRONG TO
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THAN IS USUALLY EXPECTED IN A
   PULSE STORM ENVIRONMENT.

Big storms have popped over the NW Corner of the state this morning.  We are beginning to get a few damage reports in from the NW Corner of the area around the Shoals vicinity. 

0952 AM     LIGHTNING        6 SE MUSCLE SHOALS      34.68N 87.59W   
06/19/2010                   COLBERT            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR    
  
            LIGHTNING STRUCK A RESIDENCE ON SECOND STREET IN MUSCLE   
            SHOALS. WIRING IN THE HOUSE SUSTAINED DAMAGE BUT HOUSE   
            DID NOT CATCH FIRE.  

0900 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NW BARTON             34.75N 87.90W   
06/19/2010                   COLBERT            AL   PUBLIC            
  
            TREE BLOWN DOWN ON MULBERRY LANE OFF OF OLD LEE HWY IN   
            BARTON  

This will likely be the story as things move toward the southeast and develop into the Birmingham metro area later this afternoon as temperatures soar into the mid 90′s later today.  This hour, the storms will impact the Huntsville, Decatur, Moulton areas with deadly lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail.  Be weather aware throughout the afternoon as these storms develop and approach.

Here is an image of the severe storm which impacted northern and central Shelby County around 8:30pm this evening.  This image shows the downward acceleration of the wind momentum and  the diverging signature of the winds once they reach the surface.  In the latter images you can see the stronger wind field expand toward Alabaster as it begins to move southeastward as a dominant outflow.

UPDATE:  Getting damage reports in from this same area.  Shingles off roofs, power lines down, and structure fires just NW of Alabaster near the Amberly Woods area.  This is all in association with the storm shown above.

This evening a massive bow echo has tore through portions of Iowa, Illinois and is now moving across portions of Michigan and Indiana.  90 mph winds were just reported near La Porte, IN with this convective system and numerous reports of wind damage are coming in.  Trees and power lines have been reported down across the Chicagoland area along with some reports of structural damage.  No real reports of injuries have occurred as of now, but there is a moderate risk in place from the Storm Prediction Center and an associated risk of more supercells with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes further west.  Speaking of that…

Tornado warnings are now being issued south of the Des Moines metro area this afternoon for rotating thunderstorms that have and are continuing to develop along an outflow boundary in Central and Southern Iowa.  These storms will have the potential to spawn tornadoes throughout the evening hours and into the overnight given the very unstable boundary layer in place.  Some of these tornadoes could be strong, but they shouldn’t be quite as strong as yesterday.  As we all know, however, any tornado poses a threat to life and property.  Stay tuned to later updates….

We have had a very busy 24 hours here in the Alabama Storm Trackers camp with the birth of my baby boy Graham yesterday morning.  He was born at 11:23am and weighed 8lbs. 1oz.  He was also 20" long and was born by c-section.  Mom and baby are doing fine, but things may be a bit slow around here for a bit while we transition toward home on Fathers Day.  Can’t think of a better gift.  Thanks to everyone for the prayers and well wishes during this time of great joy for our family.

-Brett

Radar image of a large and violent tornado located in Southern Minnesota where Severe Studios Storm Chaser Roger Hill has intercepted and reporting damage.  This tornado has been reported to be at least half a mile wide at times and storm chaser Danny Neal of ChaserTV and Black Cloud Media has captured this image below and uploaded on his facebook page.

This is a very dangerous situation across portions of Minnesota this evening.  Everyone should remain weather aware into the overnight as this tornado potential looks to continue.