Step two in this game will be the potential energy available at the surface.  Each model run is consistently raising these numbers from Central LA into AR and W MS.  CAPE values of over 2000J/kg are likely.  Given that the model is projecting temperatures in the 70’s for most of the day, these could even be a little on the low side.  Very little forcing and a EML (elevated mixed layer), otherwise known as a capping inversion, across the area should keep junk convection at bay.  If this were to occur….the model could be low on temperatures and some areas could reach the lower 80’s across portions of LA/AR/W MS.  This would provide a “loaded gun” environment and be more like a time bomb waiting to go off.

The lifted index values by the afternoon tell me that initiation is about ready to occur as some frontal forcing begins to arrive from the west.  By this time….the atmosphere is extremely unstable and ready for the rapid formation of supercells and tornadoes.  There is plenty of fuel for the storms to go well after dark as well. 

Low level shear…..which is on the order of 40 knots will allow for rapid development of storm rotation as supercell thunderstorms initiate.  These storms will likely move between 25-35kts which is not to bad in terms of speed….so these storms should be much more chase-able for us than the system this past weekend. 

So, what does this mean for the Mid-South?  Get ready for a possible severe weather outbreak with the potential for long track tornadoes to be involved.   Some of these tornadoes could be strong to violent given the thermodynamic and kinematic environments in place.  Damaging winds and large hail will also be a threat in any supercell thunderstorms that can develop.  We will be moving our chase status to high.  Stay Tuned….

As this severe threat passes….the pattern well remain pretty benign through the weekend.  Cooler than normal conditions will be in place across the southland with some threat of a frost by early Saturday morning.  Temperatures across the great state of Alabama will be in the 70’s with abundant sunshine.  The upper 80 degree heat will at least be out of the picture for the short term.  More rainfall is possibly by mid to late week as another decaying frontal system is progged to wash out over the area. 

Hope you enjoy the start to what looks to be a quiet TGIF and weekend! 

The severe threat is expected to continue into the evening before pushing east and off the coast later this evening.  We will continue to monitor the situation and update you as conditions warrant.

This is a situation that is marginal at best, but we will continue to monitor the situation as conditions remain favorable for some minor spin-ups throughout the evening hours.  This activity will likely calm down some after sunset and the daytime heating has waned. 

Expect more updates from us in the coming days…..computer issues and other work has kept us at bay.  We intend on being back in full force even during the benign weather patterns like the one we are currently in.  More later on the heat and why it will be gone for the next few days.