Archive for March 23rd, 2010

Warming Up Finally….Why No Severe?

Pictured above is the flow and wavelengths about five thousand feet above the surface.  We can see our compact and unseasonably strong upper level low moving out of the area toward the northeastern United States today with some low level ridging taking shape across the Ozarks.  This will gradually build into our area today ahead and tomorrow and warm us up substantially as opposed to the last few days.  Today…..temperatures will climb into the 60′s rather quickly.  Some areas in the southern sections may push 70° today.  Tomorrow will be even warmer with mid 70′s expected area wide with abundant sunshine. 

We will remain warm until our next storm system comes into the picture late Thursday night into Friday.  Once again…..this looks like a system that will just be a rain maker with the potential for a few thunderstorms.  No major severe weather is expected because of poor low level moisture. 

This illustrates another reason why we have dealt with such an issue this year.  The temperature gradient of the water temperatures has made for a great environment for coastal cyclogenesis and convection.  Therefore, return flow is much harder to establish given the split flow upper level pattern and higher than average upper level winds over the area. 

This could really set the tone for our severe weather season.  Current indications are that by mid April some severe activity could ramp up over the southeast, but we may have been saved from major outbreaks due to this.  It will take a long period of low level flow out of the Caribbean to give us any good low level buoyancy for significant severe weather.  However, as we move toward a more La Nina type pattern later this summer…..it could spell real trouble for us come hurricane season.