Snowfall will be very heavy as a change over occurs this evening.  This snow will accumulate rapidly and snowfall rates could be 2-3″ per hour…which is MUCH heavier than the snow we experienced on Friday.  Also, we are expecting some thunderstorm induced snowfall or thundersnow.  This could really make totals add up across areas that start getting the thunder.  Now, the administration here has put together a snowfall totals map and Fred Gossage created the graphic.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
151 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

ALZ030-033-039>050-121200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
SUMTER-PERRY-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-
MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...MARION...DEMOPOLIS...
LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...
WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...
AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
151 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR
LIVINGSTON AND DEMOPOLIS. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM WHILE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT LATER BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

On the maps this morning…..first we are taking a look at the Dallas Ft. Worth metro radar.  As you can see…..it is snowing across much of Central Texas this morning and it’s moving northward toward the Red River and about to cross into Oklahoma.  Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across much of the metro area this morning.  I like to keep an eye on what Dallas is getting because in these situations it normally gives me an idea of what Central Alabama might deal with.  This case is really not much different in my opinion.

Now….Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for the same areas, but we have been told to expect warnings to go out later today as the storm nears along with some Winter Weather Advisories north of the warning for the expectation of 1-2″ snowfall totals.  We have finally thrown together a map this morning of what we are thinking…and keep in mind this is subject to change but given a little northward shift in things….I believe the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor have the potential to be higher than anyone else is forecasting at this point.

Winter Storm Watches have been thrown out by the National Weather Service in Jackson, MS and Birmingham AL for the southern half of there forecast areas on Friday.  This evening we are noting some tremendous differences in track and strength of on our American models.  Our GFS model has a much better solution for a larger chunk of Alabama….and the NAM solution is much drier except for southern sections of the forecast area.  I still get the idea that snow will cause issues south of Interstate-20.  We will have to wait and see if the local offices expand the winter storm watches northward as the new guidance comes in during the overnight hours. 

I believe there is the potential for someone south of US-82 to pickup a whopper of a snow event…..maybe on the order of 6-8″+ totals.  So…..Selma…Camden….Montgomery….Troy…Greenville….this may be your huge snow hit that you haven’t seen in years.  Here are some percentages overlayed on our in house radar system…

This morning we are looking at a potential high impact winter storm affecting portions of Central and maybe South Alabama on late Thursday through Friday.  The stage still looks set for the southern 2/3 of Alabama to see a pretty good winter storm.  The computer models are pretty much in agreement….with there being minor differences in the surface fields.  The GFS is the outlier on the dry side, but climatology and the upper level fields on the model don’t really match the surface fields so most are throwing that model out.  The Canadian model is by far the wettest and snowiest model for our area….probably a bit too snowy. 

The one thing that is of interest is how the models from last evening tried to phase the mid level energy.  *IF* this were to occur….we could be looking at a major winter storm and given the track something along the lines of the February 1973 snow storm that hit East Alabama and West Georgia…dumping 14″ on the Columbus, GA area.  Again, we are going to get more in detail with this later this evening but all of the major players are on the field for a winter storm that we haven’t seen in quite some time across this area.

The National Weather Service in Jackson, Mississippi has already issued a Winter Storm Watch for southern sections of there area….primarily south of I-20.

Stay tuned….

This evening our rather thin band of convection is just passing through the Jackson, Mississippi area.  Winds gusted to near 35 mph as this small area of showers moved through the area ahead of the cold front.  Temperatures were falling to the west into the upper 30′s as the front passed.  Winds were also increasing some.  There is the potential for a wind advisory later today as the rain passes through our area and winds increase.

We are still monitoring for a potential winter storm toward the Friday time frame.  There are still a few uncertainties at this time, but we still believe there is good enough agreement that a better than normal chance of snow will be in place on Friday.  We will post further updates on the situation tomorrow through the end of the week as potential watches and warnings become necessary in the Birmingham, Huntsville, and Mobile forecast areas.

What can we say?  An unexpected snowfall has occurred this morning across portions of north Alabama…and winter storm warnings have been required for Lauderdale and Colbert counties where some 3″+ snow totals have already occurred!  Snow is spreading east through Huntsville where some roofs and roadways are beginning to become snow covered already.