Major Winter Storm on the Horizon

Okay…..there has been some talk over the last few days that a major winter storm did not look to be on the table for early next week.  We sat back and watched as some meteorologists debated over why this wouldn’t occur.  However, things are taking a different turn and we have been thinking this would happen for 2-3 days now.  I want to give you a clear picture as to why it looks like portions of Central Alabama will deal with a significant winter storm threat by Monday-Tuesday.

This is a view of last nights run of the European model.  That shows a pretty phased up upper level system with a strengthening low pressure system crossing northern Florida.  Those tightly packed lines indicate that strong winds will be likely with this system as colder air is being filtered into our region.  This model was also very moist and indicated a siginficant snowfall for a pretty large chunk of Alabama.  On to item B…

This is basically two different vantage points of the model….which is the Canadian.  This model has been EXTREMELY consistent in bringing a potent upper trough down and developing a very potent surface system as well.  The trend continues to be more northward with higher amounts of precipitation.  This model also indicates a rather significant snowfall for Central and East Alabama especially.

Now finally….this is the morning run of our GFS model.  This American model has been playing catch up but it is coming around to the right track now.  It is trending further north with the main surface precipitation as well as the surface low pressure system.  There is a large amount of saturation throughout the atmosphere with this system and it sets us up for a potential significant snowfall as well. 

What does all this mean?  Basically….we are going to deal with a very dynamic upper level system next week.  This will allow for precipitation to break out over Texas and Louisiana by late Sunday night into Monday as low pressure develops in the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Moisture will advect into our area and likely be in the form of rain initially but change over to rather heavy snow especially from HWY-278 and south if these solutions were to continue the trend.  Our target timing is late Monday night through the day on Tuesday. 

Now is the time to prepare for a potential high impact winter storm early next week.  Much more to come later….

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