Winter Storm Update: Warnings Coming and Snow Totals Call

On the maps this morning…..first we are taking a look at the Dallas Ft. Worth metro radar.  As you can see…..it is snowing across much of Central Texas this morning and it’s moving northward toward the Red River and about to cross into Oklahoma.  Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across much of the metro area this morning.  I like to keep an eye on what Dallas is getting because in these situations it normally gives me an idea of what Central Alabama might deal with.  This case is really not much different in my opinion.

Now….Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for the same areas, but we have been told to expect warnings to go out later today as the storm nears along with some Winter Weather Advisories north of the warning for the expectation of 1-2″ snowfall totals.  We have finally thrown together a map this morning of what we are thinking…and keep in mind this is subject to change but given a little northward shift in things….I believe the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor have the potential to be higher than anyone else is forecasting at this point.

We believe areas south of I-20 will deal with accumulations in the 2-5″ range and somewhere between US-82 and US-84 will deal with a heavier snow band….potentially on the order of 6″+ snow totals.  Places like Selma, Camden, Evergreen, Montgomery, Auburn look to be in this greater threat for the heaviest snow axis at this time.  Again, keep in mind that a 2″ total accumulation is criteria for a winter storm warning and this will come pretty quickly as this system should be across most of the area by 6PM tomorrow night.

The HPC is maintaining it’s probabilities for 4″+ snow accumulation south of the I-20 corridor as well and I believe they are pretty much in line with my thinking.  Here is the new HPC 10% snow probabilities map.

That runs basically from a line to Pickensville – Birmingham – Anniston and southward.  Areas south of this blue line have the greatest potential to see 4″+ total snowfall accumulation through tomorrow evening. 

Keep in mind…we are still some 12-24 hours away from this snow event and things are subject to change rapidly.  What we do know…is that it looks like everyone will be getting some snowfall out of this system.  It is harder to pinpoint exact accumulations with these kind of systems given our active southern subtropical jet.  As we have said in previous discussions….if the northern and southern stream phase more than forecast…we could be in for a more massive winter storm.

Stay tuned for later updates…

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