Archive for February 11th, 2010

WINTER STORM WARNING!


The Counties Shaded in Pink are under Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
151 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...

ALZ030-033-039>050-121200-
/O.UPG.KBMX.WS.A.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBMX.WS.W.0001.100212T0600Z-100213T0000Z/
SUMTER-PERRY-MARENGO-DALLAS-AUTAUGA-LOWNDES-ELMORE-MONTGOMERY-
MACON-BULLOCK-LEE-RUSSELL-PIKE-BARBOUR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LIVINGSTON...MARION...DEMOPOLIS...
LINDEN...SELMA...PRATTVILLE...FORT DEPOSIT...HAYNEVILLE...
WETUMPKA...TALLASSEE...MONTGOMERY...TUSKEGEE...UNION SPRINGS...
AUBURN...OPELIKA...PHENIX CITY...TROY...EUFAULA
151 PM CST THU FEB 11 2010

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN
EFFECT.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO A
DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SNOW. SNOW WILL BEGIN FALLING
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN AREAS NEAR
LIVINGSTON AND DEMOPOLIS. THE SNOW WILL QUICKLY SPREAD EASTWARD
FRIDAY MORNING...AND IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT SNOW
ACCUMULATION OF THREE TO FIVE INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WARNED AREA.

AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THE HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATING SNOW BETWEEN 7 AND 11 AM WHILE AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 WILL GET THE HEAVIEST SNOW A BIT LATER BETWEEN 10 AM AND 2 PM.

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. IF YOU MUST
TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT... FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR
VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

Winter Storm Update: Warnings Coming and Snow Totals Call

On the maps this morning…..first we are taking a look at the Dallas Ft. Worth metro radar.  As you can see…..it is snowing across much of Central Texas this morning and it’s moving northward toward the Red River and about to cross into Oklahoma.  Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings are in effect across much of the metro area this morning.  I like to keep an eye on what Dallas is getting because in these situations it normally gives me an idea of what Central Alabama might deal with.  This case is really not much different in my opinion.

Now….Winter Storm Watches are still in effect for the same areas, but we have been told to expect warnings to go out later today as the storm nears along with some Winter Weather Advisories north of the warning for the expectation of 1-2″ snowfall totals.  We have finally thrown together a map this morning of what we are thinking…and keep in mind this is subject to change but given a little northward shift in things….I believe the totals along and south of the I-20 corridor have the potential to be higher than anyone else is forecasting at this point.

We believe areas south of I-20 will deal with accumulations in the 2-5″ range and somewhere between US-82 and US-84 will deal with a heavier snow band….potentially on the order of 6″+ snow totals.  Places like Selma, Camden, Evergreen, Montgomery, Auburn look to be in this greater threat for the heaviest snow axis at this time.  Again, keep in mind that a 2″ total accumulation is criteria for a winter storm warning and this will come pretty quickly as this system should be across most of the area by 6PM tomorrow night.

The HPC is maintaining it’s probabilities for 4″+ snow accumulation south of the I-20 corridor as well and I believe they are pretty much in line with my thinking.  Here is the new HPC 10% snow probabilities map.

That runs basically from a line to Pickensville – Birmingham – Anniston and southward.  Areas south of this blue line have the greatest potential to see 4″+ total snowfall accumulation through tomorrow evening. 

Keep in mind…we are still some 12-24 hours away from this snow event and things are subject to change rapidly.  What we do know…is that it looks like everyone will be getting some snowfall out of this system.  It is harder to pinpoint exact accumulations with these kind of systems given our active southern subtropical jet.  As we have said in previous discussions….if the northern and southern stream phase more than forecast…we could be in for a more massive winter storm.

Stay tuned for later updates…