The American models have now came around to a solution that is showing a pretty good bit of precip across Alabama during the Monday night and Tuesday time frame now.  The NAM model is showing the lower atmospheric profile by midday Tuesday being almost isothermal, or below freezing down to the surface.  New data will begin rolling in during the hour and we will get more in depth later tonight as we get the new set.  I’ll give a brief synopsis of what is expected thus far…

Monday….it will be a warm day.  High’s should make it into the 50′s across much of the area as our system really gets cranked up in the Gulf to our southwest.  Rain will begin to spread into Alabama by late afternoon with rain increasing into the overnight.

Monday Night….Rain will move into the area and likely change to snow by early Tuesday morning….between 3-6am.  Temperatures likely won’t be below freezing just yet during this time, but it will be cold enough to support snowfall.

Tuesday….Snow will be underway across a good chunk of Central/North Alabama.  It looks like areas in East Alabama could approach the freezing mark as heavy snow commences.  It seems that the heaviest band may setup between I-20 and I-85….where some significant totals will be possible if the precipitation rate remains heavy throughout the afternoon.  Given the dynamics of this system….I don’t see why it shouldn’t/

We won’t go into accumulations right now, but plan on 2″ accums at least for areas east of I-65 when all is said and done.  Someone will see much higher totals than that, but we will pin that down a little later.  More to come.

This is a view of last nights run of the European model.  That shows a pretty phased up upper level system with a strengthening low pressure system crossing northern Florida.  Those tightly packed lines indicate that strong winds will be likely with this system as colder air is being filtered into our region.  This model was also very moist and indicated a siginficant snowfall for a pretty large chunk of Alabama.  On to item B…

Rainfall is increasing across areas south of I-20 and west of I-65 this evening as a southwest flow aloft bring some moisture in ahead of a mid level system that is currently still lagging behind over Texas.  There is still some chance that snow will begin to mix in and become the dominant precip type later tonight as we approach dawn north of I-85.  Temperatures will remain above freezing and ground conditions will be too warm for any appreciable accumulations. 

Also of note….the evening upper air sounding from Alabaster indicates that we don’t have much room to wetbulb….or allow evaporation to cool the lower levels as the rain falls through.  Therefore, there is a chance that some of this could remain mostly liquid.  Very tricky forecast, but I think a rain/snow scenario will be the best forecast from Montgomery northward.  Moisture is very limited and the system will move out very fast.  We should begin clearing tomorrow afternoon.  Have a good evening.

This hour….in and around the Birmingham areas most places are in the mid to upper 50′s.  However, just to our northwest you can see a sharp temperature gradient with Oxford, MS now reporting 39°.  This will continue to push southeast this afternoon as low level northwesterly winds push these temperatures into the area by late afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures will drop overnight into the middle 30′s across the region.

We are still monitoring the potential for a little rain and or snow tomorrow night as a low pressure system slides by to our south.  Computer models are coming in a little wetter with the system, but it still looks like a rather poor event in terms of wintery weather.  Don’t freak out if you see a few snow flakes across north/central parts of the state tomorrow night though.

Beyond this…..there are two more opportunities for wintery weather that loom.  These chances will come Friday night into Saturday and then again by early next week.  I tend to believe that we will go out with a bang this winter…..as we usually do in March with any wintery systems.  We will take a look at more data later concerning tomorrow night and attempt to hit it harder this evening with an evening package.  Have a great Monday.

A couple of severe warnings are being required for hail and wind where dewpoints have risen into the lower 60′s.  Some thunderstorms will be possible across Alabama tonight, but none of the severe variety.  We don’t have enough time for moisture recovery of this magnitude.  Just some nice thunder and maybe a lightning bolt. 

Cooler weather in store from late Tuesday through the week with several potential shots of wintery weather around the corner for much of Alabama.  More on that later.

Here is a look at from the Trussville camera.  Sunny skies rule the entire state of Alabama this afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 50′s.  This feels like the 80′s considering that we have been in the deep freeze for the last several days.  However, given the trend of drier and warmer weather we have been able to work on some site improvements as well as some new features that are very exciting to us and will be visible soon on the page.  Stay tuned for further updates in the coming days on the unveiling of our new products.

An area of snowfall across the Memphis area continues to expand and move ESE across portions of SW TN and NW MS this afternoon.  Some snowfall is currently being reported in the Florence, AL area albeit very light.  This snowfall could be locally moderate to heavy as it moves across the region this evening before sunset.  Some areas could receive an inch or two of snow locally.  Most locations will only receive a dusting.  A winter weather advisory is in effect for North Mississippi and Alabama until later this evening for this minor snow event.

This will be all snow unlike last evenings busted forecast of snowfall across the area.  The bulk of this precipitation will likely be from Birmingham northward this evening.  We may hit the road and stream a bit as the snow begins across portions of the area. 

Just a quick update on the winter storm situation for the evening.  The National Weather Service has expanded the winter storm warning to the south to include: Jefferson, Shelby, Talladega, Clay, and Randolph Counties.  The winter weather advisory has been expanded southward to include the entire area also. 

Our system continues to dig southward and precipitation is increasing across Arkansas.  Snow/Fog has been reported this hour at Hot Springs, AR which is pretty far south.  It may be warm outside right now, but the temperature gradient is very strong along this line of precipitation and snow is falling very heavy within the band.  More will develop as our system continues to organize this evening and moves in our general direction.

Timing:  We expect the snow to begin in areas in the west around 10-11PM….and east of 65 around the 1AM hour.  This is all subject to change of course, but things are looking a little more significant just south of I-20 where 2-4″ storm snow totals are possible.  This winter storm warning is in effect until noon on Monday.  Thundersnow could become a culprit tonight for those whom have never seen it!