A Hard Freeze warning is in effect again tonight for much of the area as lows are expected to dip into the mid teens.  Another reinforcing shot of cooler air will come in tomorrow night with a “clipper” system that comes in from the north. (Pictured Above)  We call these fronts clippers because they are normally dry and don’t do much but bring cooler air and a change in wind direction.  Lows will dip into the teens on Monday night and possibly Tuesday night for the last time before we come out of the deep freeze. 

High temperatures on Monday are expected to breach the 40 degree mark!  This is the first time we can say that in a while.  By Wednesday….temperatures could break the 50 degree mark with moisture increasing as a large storm system begins to brew to our west.  Rain will enter the forecast as we enter the weekend….with some very windy conditions also being possible as a surface low pressure area organizes in the Gulf states ahead of a powerful upper level low pressure system. We will dissect that more as we enter your work week. 

Again, expect cold temperatures for just a few more days and then the major warm up begins! 

Just when you thought the snow was over……BOOM!  We get some snow showers.  It looks like we will deal with these through most of the day.  Areas from here to the Great Lakes are reporting snowfall with these type of snow bands.  Some of these could be heavy and enough to cover the roads in some places.  So, keep in mind that there could be slick areas on the roadways from yesterdays ice/snow and from these showers.

Current temperatures across the area as of 11PM are well into the 20s across portions of Central Alabama and into the teens across the north.  You can see where the arctic cold front is located pretty well on our regional map.  This front will continue to push southeastward this evening and wind chill values will fall to near or possibly below zero across central and northern sections. 

A prolonged period of sub freezing temperatures will effect the area beginning now.  Also, given these temperatures please use EXTREME caution across counties that received precipitation today as black ice and slush will be problematic on area roadways. 

This is a forecast sounding from a mesoscale model that ran at 3PM today.  On the image above you see two points that are made……one is that a warm nose is present and the second is that there is low moisture in the dendrite layer (snow growth zone).  Basically what you are looking at a vertical profile of the atmosphere on an image.  The green line is the dewpoint line and the red line is the temperature line.  If you notice just around 2000-5000ft above the surface the temperature spikes to the right of the 0 degree Celsius line.  Once the snowfalkes fell through this layer of the atmosphere they were able to melt instead of reaching the surface as snow.  This was a HUGE reason many areas received rainfall today instead of the much advertised snowfall. 

The second area on the sounding indicated is the snow growth region.  The “dendrite” growth region (-10C to -20C region) was not moist at all.  The dewpoint line spikes to the left away from the temperature line which indicates that things are dry within the region.  This is the most favorable area for snow growth and there was no moisture….so when this occurs…you basically end up with the product pictured below.

We are monitoring the progression and expansion of the snowfall across portions of the Midwest and western Ohio Valley this evening.  The snow is beginning to pick up in intensity across portions of Kansas and Missouri.  New echos are showing up in parts of Colorado, Oklahoma, and Arkansas as well.

After much coordination this evening via IM….the forecast team has come up with a best guess of where snowfall and the heaviest snowfall will occur.  We still do not intend on being specific in terms of actual amounts, but this is a best guess as far as where the heaviest snowfall will occur. 

White – Areas of all snow.
Light Blue – Areas where the heaviest snowfall is expected to occur currently.
Pink – Areas where mixed precipitation are possible.  A change to snow near the end of the event is possible.

As in most cases, there will still likely be questions in terms of snowfall and accumulations up to the onset of the event.  We urge everyone to stay tuned for the most up to date information from The Alabama Storm Trackers.

This is a bit surprising to me this early on, but the National Weather Service in Slidell, LA has issued a Winter Weather Advisory until 10AM on Friday for all of south Louisiana and coastal Mississippi.  They are expecting frozen precipitation in the form of sleet, freezing rain, and/or snow across these areas.

Current temperatures across the area this evening are already in the mid 20′s after a day of barely making it to freezing over areas south of Interstate-20.  Some areas were unable to achieve the 32° mark which will definitely set the stage for a hard freeze again tonight.  A Hard Freeze Warning has been issued for the entire area until 10 AM Tuesday morning.  Remember to protect the plants, pets, and especially the elderly.

Now…..on to the winter weather issues that will plague the forecast.  The American model suite continues to swing a shortwave trough toward the south (color filled) and develops an attendant surface low in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.

Notice above…..the weather service is hitting the hard freeze potential in almost EVERY day for the extended. This means that temperatures are expected to drop below the critical 15 degree morning temperature threshold.  Make sure to bring the pets inside and monitor the elderly during these brutally cold conditions. 

Next….the fire danger.  Relative humidity values across the area are very low with dewpoints in the single digits…..nearing zero in some cases.  This will cause a high fire danger across the entire area and a red flag warning is in effect.  Outdoor burning is basically BANNED for this time period.  Refer to the National Weather Service in Birmingham website for more information.  (http://www.srh.noaa.gov/bmx)