Archive for December, 2009

Watching Tonight Closely

Rainfall continues to increase back to the west across portions of Arkansas and Louisiana with our mid level wave that continues to dig toward Coastal TX/LA.  A surface cold front is evident across Central TX/LA/MS this hour and is pushing in our general direction.  There is a bit of conflicting data currently that we could deal with some rain and snow later tonight.  If I were placing bets, I would stick with rain as the thermal profile will be trying to cool as the moisture is falling.  However, there is a chance that the northern fringe of this precip shield could change over to snow later tonight as it moves into the area by early tomorrow morning.

We will continue to monitor surface temperatures and pressure profiles for any factors that could throw a “kink” in the current thinking.  The best change of any flakes would be from Livingston to Clanton to Roanoke.  Monitor the Alabama Storm Trackers for further updates…

Next System….Rain or Snow?

The rain is leaving the area this morning as our first shortwave has moved off of the east coast and an evident dry slot has moved across the region.  Foggy conditions are evident across the entire area this morning through midday….some of which is dense.  Our next system showing up on water vapor imagery and upper air charts is currently progged over portions of SW Kansas, Oklahoma, and the Texas Panhandle region.  This system continues to dig and should be near the Gulf Coast of Texas later this evening.  It looks as if precipitation will break out east of this wave and will be in the form of light rain and snow.  Thermal profiles are going to be borderline as this system moves across portions of Central Alabama later tonight and early on Friday.  At this point I think a rain/snow mix would be possible areas on the northern edge of the precipitation shield.  This will have to be monitored since there has been alot of model inconsistency. 

Temperatures will plummet this weekend behind the wave and surface front.  Temperatures will have a hard time getting above 45° on Saturday and above 40° on Sunday.  We continue to forecast a true arctic outbreak on next week as cold air advection reigns supreme from the Arctic.  More on individual system as they approach on Tonight, Monday, and Thursday of next week.

Cooling Down

Temperatures are falling across northern sections of the state as some wedging is taking place with a slight easterly component to the winds bringing in the cooler air from Georgia.  Don’t expect temperatures to fall much more during the night tonight with the clouds and rainfall across most of the area.  The air is almost saturated.

Heavy Rain 6:15PM : Montgomery, AL

Heavy rainfall is now moving into the Montgomery, AL area.  Luckily, rush hour is almost over and I-85 and 65 may not be quite as busy as they were just a bit earlier.  The bulk of the heavy rainfall should move across within the next few hours.  A dry slot has been noted across portions of west/central Alabama….from Greensboro to Birmingham.  More rainfall is developing to the west of this area and looks to be moving eastward as well. 

Rainy Rush Hour

Heavy rainfall is moving in south of Interstate 20 and west of Interstate 65 this evening.  The heaviest rain continues to be across Marengo, Greene, Sumter, Perry, and Hale Counties where 1/2″ an hour rain rates are possible.  This rain continues to march northeast as our surface wave traverses the area.  Allow for extra travel time this afternoon if you are along State Roads 69, 25, and 28.  As well as US-80 and 82 this evening. 

South MS/AL Rainfall

There is a shot of the heavier rainfall across southern portions of Mississippi and Alabama that is moving in our general direction over the next 6-8 hours or so.  The rainfall is coming to an end near the Mississippi River, but the southwest fetch of moisture will keep us damp for quite some time.

Light Rain Moving Across

Rainfall across the area continues to increase this afternoon as the low levels moisten up across the area.  Across the board this afternoon temps are in the upper 40′s and low 50′s area wide with many areas reporting light rainfall.  Some moderate/heavy rainfall is spreading northeast across southern Mississippi into western sections of Alabama this hour.  Rain will generally become a little heavier this evening into the overnight as the bulk of the shortwave moves across.

Another wave of energy will dive southward towards Texas tomorrow and attempt to spin up another little surface reflection late Thursday into early Friday.  At this point the main precip looks to stay southward as the colder air arrives, but a few flurries can’t be ruled out for the first day of the new year.  We will continue to monitor the progression of these systems as we head into a colder pattern. 

Southern Snowmaking

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This image is from last evening with my daughter under the snow gun as the process was taking place. Looks like more snow making could be in order for late Saturday through the rest of the weekend.

Moisture is Increasing

Tonight…moisture is increasing as a shortwave trough to the west is beginning to set off some rain/sleet on the radar screens across the deep south this evening. Most of this precipitation is not reaching the ground, but a few pockets of sleet have been reported primarily around the Jackson, MS metro area. This will continue to move eastward and may evaporate as it traverses the region until the column aloft can moisten up.

Anyway, don’t be surprised if you see a few ice pellets tonight as your journey out. Rainfall will increase tomorrow especially across southern sections of Alabama. Rainfall amounts north of I-20 should be fairly light with the wave passing by later tomorrow night.

Colder weather will arrive this weekend with some of the coldest air of the season on tap by next week. Get those heaters ready!

Windy Conditions Ahead

MSLP

A large storm system is spinning up to our west this evening with tornado watches and warnings in place across parts of Texas. A surface low pressure system is developing across portions of Central Texas and will deepen as it move NNE toward the middle Mississippi Valley area. An area of high pressure to the east will cause a wedging effect with Alabama being in the squeeze play. The isobars will rapidly begin to pack across the area resulting in extremely windy conditions beginning late tonight through the day tomorrow and tomorrow night. Non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 50+ mph during the daytime hours.

A squall line will race across the state tomorrow evening into the early overnight on Christmas Eve. We will have to monitor these showers/isolated storms for the potential for some damaging wind gusts of near 70 mph as a low level jet cranks up. Colder air is on the way following this system….with highs in the low-mid 40′s and lows in the 20′s. Merry Christmas and we’ll keep you updated on this major storm system..