Archive for October, 2009
Damage Reported
October 12th, 2009 | 
Author: 
This occurred just a bit earlier. A tornado warning was in effect for eastern sections of Randolph County this morning. Thunderstorm wind damage has also been reported in parts of Etowah county where trees and power lines have been downed.
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10/12/09: Flooding
Flash flood warnings have been required this morning for Dekalb, Jefferson, and Etowah counties until late morning/early afternoon as some 3″ totals have occurred over portions of these areas. Heavy rain extends from Millport to Fort Payne. Rainfall is more scattered south of this line currently with some heavier echos across Central Alabama. More heavy rainfall is developing across Mississippi and Louisiana and will generally move in our direction later this afternoon. The Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) has raised rainfall amounts expected over the next five days yet again.
Along with the threat of heavy rainfall across the area, some strong thunderstorm activity will be possible around and south from a Demopolis to Montgomery line where a warm frontal boundary resides. This boundary won’t have much push to move northward given the heavy rain shield to the north which will aid in “blocking” a northward motion of the boundary. Some high winds and an isolated tornado or two can’t be ruled out as thunderstorms develop later this afternoon to the south of the front.
We will monitor the threat for severe weather and flooding throughout the afternoon and we will make a decision over the next few hours on chasing or going to shoot video of the storms and flooding. Stay tuned for later updates.
Flash Flood Watch
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON…
.LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST ALONG THE INTERSTATE 20
CORRIDOR ON MONDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE TRANSPORTED ACROSS THE AREA
AND WITH A WARM FRONT IN THE VICINITY…LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
ALZ011>015-017>029-121500-
/O.NEW.KBMX.FF.A.0018.091012T0900Z-091012T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
MARION-LAMAR-FAYETTE-WINSTON-WALKER-BLOUNT-ETOWAH-CALHOUN-
CHEROKEE-CLEBURNE-PICKENS-TUSCALOOSA-JEFFERSON-SHELBY-ST. CLAIR-
TALLADEGA-CLAY-RANDOLPH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…HAMILTON…SULLIGENT…VERNON…
FAYETTE…DOUBLE SPRINGS…JASPER…ONEONTA…GADSDEN…
ANNISTON…CENTRE…HEFLIN…CARROLLTON…TUSCALOOSA…
BIRMINGHAM…HOOVER…COLUMBIANA…PELHAM…ALABASTER…
PELL CITY…MOODY…TALLADEGA…SYLACAUGA…ASHLAND…ROANOKE
920 PM CDT SUN OCT 11 2009
…FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM CDT MONDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON…
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA…EAST CENTRAL
ALABAMA…NORTHEAST ALABAMA…NORTHWEST ALABAMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA…INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS…IN CENTRAL
ALABAMA…BLOUNT…JEFFERSON…SHELBY…ST. CLAIR… TALLADEGA
AND WALKER. IN EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA…CALHOUN… CLAY…CLEBURNE
AND RANDOLPH. IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA…CHEROKEE AND ETOWAH. IN
NORTHWEST ALABAMA…MARION AND WINSTON. IN WEST CENTRAL
ALABAMA…FAYETTE…LAMAR…PICKENS AND TUSCALOOSA.
* FROM 4 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 4 PM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
* RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LOW
PRESSURE PASSES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.
YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.
Storm Shots from NW Alabama
Here are a few photos of the storms from Marion, Walker, Winston Counties that we chased this afternoon.
10/9/09 Severe Threat Part II
This morning conditions are very warm and moist across the lower Mississippi Valley region. Temperatures are in the lower-mid 70′s and the dewpoints are in the same vicinity. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for the NW 3/4 of Alabama and most of Mississippi and Tennessee for today.
A conditional tornado risk also exists across portions of NW AL, N MS, and TN this afternoon as thunderstorms develop along and just ahead of a cold front on the instability axis. This threat will be highest with any discrete convection that can form and stay sustained without being undercut by the frontal zone. Morning soundings indicate a moderately unstable environment already with modest 0-1km shear values. Directional shear will wane some during the day as some surface veering is expected, but an isolated tornado or two still can not be ruled out.
We will test streaming today in N MS/N AL and will likely test some for our media partners in the Tennessee Valley. We may also do some flood shooting if conditions warrant. Stay tuned for further updates on the impending situation.
10/9/09 Severe Threat: MS/AL/TN
Tomorrow certainly looks to showcase some thunderstorms along a frontal boundary that is currently located across parts of Oklahoma this hour. We are monitoring the progression of this system as the latest guidance streams in. The 00z NAM model indicates that parts of MS/AL will get highly unstable by the noon hour with 75 degree dewpoints surging northward near Tupelo, MS.
0-1km shear values of 25+ kts indicate that some rotating storms could be possible within or ahead of this line between noon and 6PM from Tupelo to Jasper to Hunstville before the better dynamics move well north of the region. Linear modes of severe weather is likely with damaging winds, small hail, and very heavy rainfall being tremendous threats. However, if we are able to break the inversion ahead of the frontal forcing, some discrete convection could become probable and the threat for tornadoes would rise tremendously. Watches are likely for tomorrow and warnings are quite possible.
We currently plan to deploy sometime in the morning hours for either north Mississippi or north Alabama to chase. The terrain is better across northern sections of Alabama so we may venture in that area. Stay with the Alabama Storm Trackers for updates on this developing situation as conditions warrant. We will post an update before deployment in the morning after the Storm Prediction Center places there bets on the system
-Brett Adair-
Day 2 Upgrade: AR/MS/TN/NW AL Slight Risk
The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded portions of AR/MS/TN/NW AL to a slight risk of severe weather for tomorrow. The main threats at this time appear to be damaging winds and small hail, but there is mention if the convective mode does not remain fully linear….that the tornado threat would increase substantially. This will be something that we will monitor and will likely chase if the convective mode looks more cellular in nature. Stay tuned for further updates and details later in the day into the overnight.
Chase Status: HIGH
Midsouth Significant Tornado Threat?
We talked about this last night from the 00z run of the NAM, but I think the 12z run made the SPC think about it a little more. Now, the latest 1630z outlook shows a 10 percent hatched area for tornado development across portions of northeast Arkansas.
The Storm Prediction Center mentions “training supercells with a conditional threat of a significant tornado or two”. A warm frontal boundary will provide significant low level turning along with robust instability just south of the boundary. Areas in the Jonesboro are and northeastward should monitor this dangerous weather situation very closely.
10-8-09 Severe Threat
There appears to be growing concern that portions of Arkansas could go under the gun later tomorrow afternoon once daytime heating takes place over the area. The North American Model (NAM) indicates that Energy-Helicity Index values reach above 3 tomorrow. This index is based on the amount of instability and shear in the area. Values above 1 in the 0-1km level indicate potential for tornadoes. We plan to monitor things tonight and see how the SPC feels about the threat before deciding on deployment early in the morning. At this point, it looks like a pretty decent threat could be setting up for the Pocahontas – Jonesboro – Earle region. Stay tuned…
Chase potential : MODERATE
Brett Adair