Tornado Watch #1 has been issued this evening across portions of Missouri and Illinois for a strong cold front that has sparked some severe/tornado warned storms across the region this evening.  It looks like no confirmed reports of tornadoes are out at this time, but several reports of hail greater than .75” in diameter have been.  The tornado watch runs for the next several hours until 7AM central time.

On another note….a SLGT risk of severe weather was issued by the Storm Prediction Center around midnight for today across portions of Central Mississippi into Central/Northern Alabama.  The primary threats remain to be wind/hail but an isolated tornado occurrence is possible as well.  We will have to watch this potential through the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow and we may have teams in the field if conditions warrant. 

There is the potential for touring to take place as well.  Inquire about tours to brett@livestormsnow.com ASAP to make reservations! 

Foggy conditions can be expected tonight across portions of Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi where some foggy conditions have already developed following today’s rainfall.  Dense Fog Advisories have been issued for portions of Central Alabama this hour until 9am on Monday.  If you must get on the roadways….take extra time and travel slow.  As I was heading to work it was especially foggy along US-280 in east-central Alabama this evening.  Stay safe…

Some warnings have been required this afternoon across portions of Mississippi where stronger storms have developed some hail cores that are reaching the surface.  Most of the warnings have been for hail occurrences and will likely start to diminish with the setting sun this evening.  More storms can be expected all the way through early Wednesday.  Strong to severe storms may be more common on Tuesday.  More on that later…

Rainfall is ongoing across portions of Alabama along the state line at this hour, but the rainfall is expected to pick up this afternoon.  Another wave of energy in the upper air will swing in and cause more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop across the area through the early part of the day tomorrow.   Some river flooding could become a problem across western sections of the area.  Temperatures across the northern 2/3 of Alabama will remain too stable for any kind of severe activity….but things along the Gulf Coast could crank up later as the shortwave moves closer. 

The SPC upgraded a portion of the outlook area along the Gulf Coast to a slight risk around 10am this morning for the overnight hours tonight.  Shear will increase ahead of a mid level wave….as will some weak instability which could lead to a few damaging wind gusts and/or brief tornadoes.  The risk runs roughly from Mobile to Dothan and southward. 

We will likely release a full summary on the December 22nd QLCS/low topped supercell tornado event in the coming days as we get video and pictures together of the happenings of that day.  Look for it in future postings. 

The SPC has a slight risk out for parts of Texas tommorow. Supercell development is possible, but the main threat still appears to be straight-line winds.

The Alabama Storm Trackers and the LiveStormsNOW.com crew were on the road today in search of snowfall across North Alabama.  We found it on Monte Sano as the upper level low swung across.  Snowfall was very isolated, but we did encounter some heavier bursts.  Around 1” of snow did accumulate before all melting once it ended.  Brett Adair, David Ruffini, and Tommy Self were in attendance for the events.

Looking into the potential for another deep south snow threat beginning tonight and going into the daytime tomorrow.  After going over one of our higher resolution and more reliable short term models this evening….it certainly looks like we will see some flakes flying.  Let’s get into it…

Here is the modeled reflectivity for around 9am tomorrow morning.  You can see a pretty intense shield of precipitation across TN/N MS and N AL.  This area will most likely be in the form of snow as an upper level low pressure area moves across the region.  Very cold temperatures aloft will likely allow this precip to stay in the form of snow through most of the day light hours underneath the low. 

Here is the accumulated snowfall through 9am tomorrow.  The HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) model is showing some 2-3” totals along the AR/TN/MS border area with more snow still falling at a moderate pace.  You can see the model is showing accumulations sneaking into the picture across North Mississippi and Northwest Alabama during the same time frame.  The snow should just be entering NW sections of Alabama by this time.  We will monitor the trends and progression of this.

We will likely be deploying in the early AM hours for North Alabama to stream somewhere near Monte Sano during the snow event.  This event could drop some couple of inches on the higher elevations across Tennessee and maybe North Alabama.  This will be a situation you will want to pay attention to.  Click the Brett Adair and Eric Parker tab on LiveStormsNOW.com for live video during the event tomorrow.

We are now monitoring after some run to run consistency from the forecast models over the last few days of some snow potential for portions of North Alabama on Monday and into Tuesday with a powerful upper level low pressure area that is projected to move across the region.  The morning run of the GFS still pains some accumulating snowfall for places across North Alabama…such as the Shoals area….of nearly 3-5”.  Again, this is accumulating snowfall and not necessarily what falls.  Therefore, I feel that we may get a heavier band of snow across sections of N MS, AL and TN during this period.  More later on…

Brett Adair and the Alabama Storm Trackers wil be in the field on Tuesday. Their is a very significant severe weather threat on Tuesday, including strong straight line winds, hail and tornadoes. The best chance for severe weather will be in Central and East Mississippi and West and Cental Alabama. Contact Brett Adair at brett@livestormsnow.com for more information on how you can be part of the chase!

Chase Prices are an estimate, and are not reflective of every chase. Contact Brett for each chase price.

***CLICK TO ENLARGE IMAGERY***

Increasing cloud cover ahead of a cold front can be blamed on returning moisture across the area.  Temperatures are in the 60’s with some areas approaching 70 mainly across the south. 

Radar shows our showers moving northward and eastward from the Clanton/Prattville/Montgomery areas as moisture continues to advance into the area.  Dewpoints are into the mid 50’s at this point and should continue to climb over the next couple of days. 

We are monitoring a cold front that is currently coming out of the Kansas area that will bring some welcome rainfall to the area by mid week.  There is also the potential for members of the Alabama Storm Trackers to deploy to Texas for impending severe weather.  Wee will keep you informed.